Amazon.com (AMZN)

The real story isn't the 39.3% AWS growth number everyone will lead with; it's that management pulled back the two metrics that would let you check whether the $75.9 billion in quarterly capex (up 43% sequentially) is actually being monetized at pace. The obvious headline is 'AWS reaccelerates to five-year high growth and guides to 40%+ in 2027/2028', but underneath that, the AI and chips dollar run-rates disclosed every quarter since they launched simply disappeared, replaced by 'triple digits' language with no base, and the Graviton 98% penetration stat vanished too. The binding constraint, by management's own admission, is chip allocation: there's only so many chips that provider can provide each year and everybody gets an allocation, not demand. The tell is Jassy's answer on capex breakeven: last quarter it was 'a little less than three years'; this quarter, in direct response to the same question, it became 'we're continuing to move that left... make that shorter', with no number. My view changes if next quarter AMZN restores an explicit AI/chips revenue run-rate dollar figure and AWS margin stabilizes despite continued capex escalation; if instead the dollar anchors stay buried while capex keeps compounding, that's the setup for a disappointing ROIC reveal in 2027-2028.