| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 29, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 11/12 | 8 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 29, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | On track | Return $2 B to shareholders via buybacks/dividends in FY. $1 B repurchased H1; $1 B remaining for H2. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain leverage within 2.5‑3.0×. Leverage 2.96× at quarter end. |
| Q2'26 | Missed (delay) | RNG plant ramp to be fully operational by end‑2026. Q2 disclosed pipeline interconnect issues; full ramp now expected later in 2026. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Generate $920 M free cash flow in Q1. Q1 FCF $920 M confirmed. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Achieve core price >5.5% for 2026. Core price hit 5.7% (Q2), up from 5.3% Q1. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Complete sustainability capital‑expenditure program by year‑end 2026. Capex down 18% YoY, but no concrete completion date disclosed. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Deliver $300 M of total synergies by end‑2027 (incl. $50 M cross‑selling). Q2 cross‑selling $32 M to date; $18 M still needed - on track but not yet delivered. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Operating expenses below 60% sustainability Fifth consecutive quarter below 60% - proving structural nature of improvement |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Free cash flow growth acceleration $920M vs $480M prior year - nearly doubled, ahead of expectations |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Sustainability EBITDA growth from new facilities Renewable energy EBITDA more than doubled, recycling up 18% despite commodity headwinds |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Health Care customer service improvements Customer service stats now above Legacy Business - better than expected progress |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue to drive margin expansion in collection & disposal 110 bps expansion vs typical 30-50 bps guidance - well above expectations |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Health Care credit memos would peak in Q4 2025 Fish confirmed credit memos peaked in Q4, now declining - exactly as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | RNG facilities and recycling automation on schedule Commissioned 7 new RNG facilities and 5 recycling upgrades |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Leverage ratio toward 2.5-3x by mid-2026 At 3.1x, on track but timeline may extend through full year 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Sustainability EBITDA growth of $280M in 2025 Appears to have underperformed due to commodity pressures |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Healthcare integration into area structure Fully integrated into 16 areas as of Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow approaching $3.8B in 2026 Confirmed $3.8B at midpoint in formal guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Operating expenses below 60% becoming sustainable Achieved sub-60% for full year 2025, first time in company history |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Healthcare Solutions SG&A synergies of $80-100M in 2025 Delivered above top end of range |
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