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Call sheet · Q1'26

Waste Management (WM)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 29, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
8 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Health Care Solutions hitting an inflection point - customer service metrics now exceed the Legacy Business and billing issues are genuinely behind them, setting up real pricing power. While everyone focuses on weather-impacted volumes, the bigger story is structural margin expansion continuing with OpEx below 60% for five straight quarters and 110 bps C&D margin growth. The binding constraint right now is weather and seasonal patterns, not underlying demand - special waste up 6.7% ex-wildfire and industrial finally positive after seven negative quarters signals macro improvement. Fish's confidence upgrade from 'cautiously optimistic' to just 'optimistic' backed by real-time data like MSW volumes over 4% last week. My view changes if volume guidance gets cut at the Q2 reassessment or if Health Care customer service metrics reverse course.

The 30-second version

  • Health Care Solutions hits inflection point with real pricing power emerging
  • Core business margin expansion accelerates despite volume softness
  • Special waste volumes signal macro turning positive, industrial finally stabilizes

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Total RevenueQ4: $5.69B (+5.8% YoY)Q1: $5.47B (+4.2% YoY)Seasonal decline but growth decelerated 160 bps
Operating EBITDAQ4: $1.75B (+8.1% YoY)Q1: $1.66B (+5.9% YoY)Growth slowed 220 bps but margin expanded
Free Cash FlowQ4: $1.23BQ1: $920MNearly doubled from $480M prior year
Collection & Disposal EBITDAQ4: 39% marginQ1: 37.1% margin (110 bps expansion YoY)Seasonal step down but strong YoY acceleration
Health Care Solutions EBITDA GrowthQ4: Modest growthQ1: +11.8% YoYMeaningful acceleration in profitability
Core Price (C&D)Q4: 6.2%Q1: 6.3%Exceeded expectations, stayed elevated
Special Waste VolumesQ4: Negative due to wildfire compsQ1: +6.7% ex-wildfire impactStrong rebound signals demand recovery
MSW VolumesQ4: SoftQ1: +2.7%, recent week +4%Clear acceleration trend
Industrial CollectionQ4: Down ~1.5%Q1: +0.2%First positive quarter in 6-7 quarters
Driver TurnoverQ4: ~15.7%Q1: 17.2%130 bps improvement YoY

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made6 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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