| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 13, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 medium flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 16, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 27, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Process 80% of prior authorizations in real time by end of 2027 Deadline not yet due; not mentioned at all this quarter, so no interim update is available. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | End 2026 with more than 95% of OptumRx clients on 100% rebate pass-through Metric not repeated on this call at all; actual not stated on the call, so status remains unverified pending. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Eliminate 30% of prior authorization volume and two-thirds of pediatric prior authorizations by end of 2026 Reaffirmed this quarter as 'on track' with the same specific figures; deadline has not yet arrived. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Reduce debt-to-capital ratio to approximately 40% by end of 2026 Ratio moved the wrong way this quarter (41.2% to 41.7%), raising execution risk on a target still reiterated as achievable by year-end. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Complete total share repurchases of at least $5 billion in 2026 Already hit the $5B floor through Q3 with a quarter still to go; full-year actual not yet reported, so technically still pending per the fiscal-year deadline. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Medicare margins to finish 2026 above 3% Full year not yet complete; this quarter's update revises the outlook upward to 'near the top end of the 2% to 4% range', a positive revision but not yet a resolved actual. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Process 80% of prior authorizations in real-time by end of 2027 Currently at 50% real-time processing. Long runway to hit this target. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Commercial margin recovery trajectory toward 7%+ by 2027 Quietly walked back. Now saying recovery extends 'past 2027' with no new timeline. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Medicare margins to be 50 basis points higher year-over-year Now guiding to above 3% margins versus 2-4% range previously. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Deploy at least $2 billion in buybacks by end of Q2 Already deployed $4 billion through mid-July, doubled the commitment. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Reduce debt-to-capital ratio to 40% by end of 2026 At 41.2% currently, down from 42.9% in Q1. On track but not there yet. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Achieve approximately 2/3 earnings in H1, 1/3 in H2 for 2026 On track so far with Q1 at $7.23 and Q2 at $6.38, but H2 will be the test. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Return to historical capital deployment practices Accelerating $2B share repurchases, ahead of original back-half timeline |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Strengthen balance sheet and reduce leverage Debt-to-capital improved to 42.9% from higher levels, targeting 40% by year-end |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | AI investments to drive productivity gains $1B in operating cost reductions already materializing, ahead of schedule |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Focus on margin recovery over membership growth Clearly prioritizing margins, taking deeper membership cuts than originally guided |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Optum Health to return to disciplined value-based care model Restructured contracts, narrowed network 20%, streamlined risk membership 15% |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Medicare margins to improve by 50 basis points in 2026 Confirmed they're on track for this target with current pricing actions |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Substantial offset of V28 impact through benefit design and cost control Claims to have addressed it but 2026 will be the test of actual execution |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Current analyst consensus captures likely stepping off point for 2026 Comfortable with consensus, guided above it with >$17.75 vs street expectations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Return to solid growth in 2026, acceleration in 2027 Guided to >8.6% EPS growth in 2026, maintained 2027 acceleration outlook |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Offset approximately half of V28 headwind through payer contracting Management confirmed 90%+ complete on contracting efforts to offset V28 impact |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Medicare Advantage contraction of approximately 1 million members Actual contraction 1.3-1.4M, 30-40% higher than predicted due to competitive dynamics |
| Q4'25 | Missed | OptumHealth margins of just under 3% for 2025 Delivered $1.5B adjusted baseline after restructuring, significantly below the $3B+ implied by 'just under 3%' margin guidance |
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