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Management credibility scorecard

Shopify (SHOP)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 5, 2026
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100%
Kept of 12 resolved
12
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
2
Still pending

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 5, 20268/124 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Q1'26May 5, 20269/122 medium, 1 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'25February 11, 20268/121 medium flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26ExceededFor Q2, we expect free cash flow margins in the mid-teens.
Actual Q2 FCF margin was just over 18%, exceeding the outlook.
Q2'26ExceededWe expect operating expenses in Q2 to be 35% to 36% of revenue.
Actual Q2 OpEx came in at 34% of revenue, better (lower) than the guided 35-36% range.
Q2'26ExceededWe expect our gross profit dollars to grow in the mid-20s.
Management stated Q2 achieved greater than 30% growth in gross profit, above the mid-20s guide.
Q2'26ExceededWe expect Q2 revenue growth in the high 20s year-over-year.
Actual Q2 revenue grew 34%, well above the high-20s guide.
Q1'26DeliveredFor Q1, we expect a free cash flow margin in the low to mid-teens
Actual FCF margin was 15%, which management itself described as 'in line with our outlook'.
Q1'26DeliveredWe expect that our Q1 operating expenses will be 37% to 38% of revenues
Actual opex was 37% of revenue, hitting the low end of guidance.
Q1'26ExceededWe expect our gross profit dollars to grow in the high 20s
Q1 gross profit grew 32%, and management itself stated it came in 'slightly ahead of our expectations'.
Q1'26ExceededWe expect Q1 revenue growth in the low 30s year over year
Actual Q1 revenue grew 34%, above the 'low 30s' guide range.
Q4'25PendingFY2025 free cash flow margin expected to be 'similar to 2024'
FY2025 FCF margin was stated as 17%, but the 2024 comparable figure was not restated on this call, so the 'similar to 2024' claim cannot be independently confirmed from the transcripts; actual comparison not stated on the call.
Q4'25DeliveredQ4 free cash flow margin guided to be 'slightly above Q3' (Q3 = 18%)
Actual Q4 FCF margin was 19%, consistent with 'slightly above Q3.'
Q4'25PendingQ4 stock-based compensation guided to '$130 million'
Actual Q4 SBC figure was not stated on this call; unverified.
Q4'25ExceededQ4 operating expenses guided to '30% to 31% of revenue'
Actual Q4 opex came in at 29% of revenue, better than the guided range.
Q4'25DeliveredQ4 gross profit dollars guided to grow 'low to mid-20s'
Actual Q4 gross profit grew 25%, landing at the top of/slightly above the guided range.
Q4'25ExceededQ4 revenue growth guided to 'mid to high 20s year-over-year'
Actual Q4 revenue grew 31% (29% cc), well above the guided mid-to-high-20s range.
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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