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Call sheet · Q4'25

Shopify (SHOP)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 11, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
1 medium flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Shopify delivered 31% revenue growth against a mid-to-high twenties outlook and a 19% free cash flow margin. The operating question is whether payments and new AI distribution channels can grow gross profit dollars while sustaining cash conversion. Merchant Solutions gross margin was 36.8%, with payments mix among the drivers. Management guided Q1 revenue growth in the low thirties and a low-to-mid-teens free cash flow margin. Those are measurable next tests. Merchant transaction pricing does not establish a cap on Shopify profitability, and campaign budget growth cannot be compared directly with campaign revenue growth.

The 30-second version

  • Growth beat the prior outlook while cash margin improved
  • Payments growth brings a mix tradeoff
  • AI distribution is expanding; its incremental economics need measurement

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue growth (YoY)32% / 31% cc (Q3)31% / 29% cc (Q4)Modest deceleration despite record absolute revenue
GMV growth (YoY)32% (Q3)31% / 29% cc (Q4)First $100B GMV quarter but growth rate ticking down
Free cash flow margin18% (Q3)19% (Q4)+100bps sequential improvement
Gross profit growth24% (Q3)25% (Q4)Slight acceleration
Merchant Solutions gross margin38.2% vs 39.7% PY (Q3)36.8% (Q4)Continued YoY compression from mix shift to payments
Subscription Solutions revenue growth15% (Q3)17% (Q4)Acceleration
MRR growth (YoY)10% (Q3)15% (Q4)+500bps acceleration
Transaction and loan losses (% revenue)5% elevated (Q3)~3%, back to historical trend (Q4)Loss expense ratio returned toward historical levels
B2B GMV growth (YoY)98% (Q3)84% (Q4)-1,400bps deceleration
Europe GMV growth (YoY / cc)49% / 42% cc (Q3)45% / 35% cc (Q4)Deceleration in constant currency terms

Accountability tracked

4 new promises made6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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