| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 21, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 22, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 22, 2026 | 7/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 28, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Continued anticipation of 'a strong 2026' for investment banking/advisory Fiscal year 2026 has not ended. Institutional revenue fell 14% YoY and IB revenue fell 6% YoY in Q3, and management revised its full-year revenue outlook down to the low end of January's range, separately characterizing the current environment as 'still not a hugely robust environment'; this is a downward revision to the prior guidance, not yet a final miss since the year is still in progress. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full year loan growth of 'up to $4 billion,' with high confidence cited Fiscal year not yet ended; $3.6B achieved through Q3, 'just shy' of the full $4B target per management. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Comp ratio expected at midpoint to lower half of 56.5%-57.5% range for H2 2026 Q3 comp ratio came in at 56.6%, within the stated range and near the low end. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Q3 net interest income guided to $290M-$300M Actual NII came in at $302M, above the high end of guidance and $4M above consensus. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Maintain full-year guide of up to $4 billion in balance sheet/loan growth Full fiscal-year target not yet concluded; management reaffirmed being 'well on pace' with $2.6B added in Q2, but the FY deadline has not arrived. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 net interest income guided to $280-290 million Management stated NII 'came in at the higher end of our guidance and $4 million above consensus'. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $10 billion in revenue and $1 trillion in client assets, with no committed timeframe Reiterated again this quarter with the same open-ended framing; no new timeline given. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Recruiting pipeline entering 2026 remains strong, and we expect another solid year Q1 recruiting commentary was vague and dismissive ('same question... same answer every quarter') with trailing production actually declining from $86M to $80M, an unverified but directionally soft signal. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Up to $4 billion of balance sheet/asset growth supporting FY2026 NII guide Management explicitly reaffirmed 'we are maintaining our full year guide of up to $4 billion in asset growth' despite a slower-than-forecast Q1. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | FY2026 net revenue guidance of $6.0 to $6.35 billion Period has not ended; no explicit re-affirmation or update to this specific range was stated in the Q1 call transcript provided. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | FY2026 non-compensation operating ratio guidance of 18% to 20% Q1 actual of 19% sits at the midpoint of the guided range. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | FY2026 comp ratio guidance of 56.5% to 57.5% Q1 actual of 57.5% sits at the high end of the range, consistent with the historical pattern of delivering near the top of guided ranges. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | FY2026 net interest income guidance of $1.1 to $1.2 billion, supported by ~$4 billion of balance sheet growth Period has not ended; management reaffirmed the range this quarter and noted they are 'already annualizing the low end' with hope for upside in Q2-Q4. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Q1 2026 net interest income to be in the range of $275 to $285 million Came in at the lower end of guidance per management's own characterization, with non-bank NII running roughly $3M below consensus; technically within range but at the weak edge. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We believe that 20 to low 20s is achievable [institutional segment margin]. No deadline attached; FY2025 institutional margin landed around 17% per management, below the target, with forward language softened to 'I'd like to think.' Remains an open, undated target. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | confirmation of the goal of getting to $1 billion of loan growth in the back half of the year, and we still feel confident in that. Period (back half of 2025) has ended, but the current transcript does not state an explicit back-half loan growth dollar figure; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | we anticipate a full year effective tax rate of 20% to 22%, implying a fourth quarter rate of 12% to 14%. Actual Q4 effective tax rate came in at 14.1%, 'slightly above both guidance and consensus'. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We expect a similar adjusted non-comp ratio in the fourth quarter, which is at the low end of our annual guidance range. Current call states 'total non-compensation expenses generally in line with expectations'; management characterizes this as on-plan. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We forecast fourth quarter NII to be in a range of $270 million to $280 million. Management states NII 'was at the high end of our guidance, but was $2 million below consensus'; period ended, management claims delivery at the top of the range. |
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