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Management credibility scorecard

Rockwell Automation (ROK)

4 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q3'26) · latest call August 4, 2026
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88%
Kept of 16 resolved
14
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q3'26August 4, 20269/123 medium, 1 low flags10Call sheet →
Q2'262026-05-0510/121 high, 2 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Q1'26February 5, 202610/122 medium, 4 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'252025-11-0610/122 medium, 4 low flags62Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q3'26PendingFY26 Lifecycle Services reported revenue expected down about $100 million YoY
Fiscal year not complete; guide was revised worse to ~$150 million decline this quarter, a downward revision in progress rather than a closed-out result.
Q3'26PendingFY26 organic ARR to grow high single digits, led by cloud-native software
Fiscal year not yet complete; guidance was cut to mid-single digits this quarter, a downward revision rather than a final miss.
Q3'26PendingFull-year book-to-bill expected to remain within the normal 0.95-1.1 corridor
Management said Q3 company-wide book-to-bill was within the normal corridor. The full-year period had not ended, so the annual expectation was not yet delivered. Do not substitute the Lifecycle Services segment ratio.
Q3'26ExceededQ3 adjusted EPS expected to be up about $0.05 sequentially, or up mid to high teens year over year
Actual Q3 adjusted EPS was $3.49, up $0.19 sequentially from Q2's $3.30 and up 'more than 20%' YoY, well above the guided sequential and YoY ranges.
Q2'26ExceededTwo points of total price for fiscal 2026
Increased to 250bp, up 50bp from original guide due to additional underlying price actions
Q2'26DeliveredSensia dissolution to close April 1 with no significant EPS impact
Closed as planned, EPS neutral as promised, $100M revenue headwind as expected
Q2'26ExceededIncremental margins about 40% for fiscal 2026
Now expecting above 50% for full year, well ahead of 40% target due to strong volume leverage
Q2'26ExceededModest sequential margin improvement each quarter
Q2 delivered 330bp sequential improvement, well above 'modest' - but now warning of H2 pressure
Q2'26PendingHigh single-digit organic ARR growth for fiscal 2026
6% in Q2 vs 7% in Q1 - decelerating trend makes high single digits questionable
Q2'26PendingFree cash flow conversion of approximately 100% for fiscal 2026
On track with strong Q2 FCF of $275M, but full year depends on working capital management in H2
Q1'26ExceededOrganic sales growth of 2% to 6%
Q1 delivered 13% organic growth, well above range
Q1'26PendingSensia dissolution in first half of fiscal 2026
On track for April 1 close as promised
Q1'26DeliveredMid-single digit automotive growth outlook
Delivered mid-single digits as guided
Q1'26DeliveredHigh single-digit ARR growth
7% growth in Q1 is at low end but within range
Q1'26PendingFree cash flow conversion of approximately 100%
Q1 at $170M, on pace but down YoY due to incentive payments
Q1'26PendingFull-year segment margin expansion of over 100 basis points
On track with 20.7% in Q1 vs 20.4% full-year 2025
Q4'25MissedGradual sequential improvement through the year on CapEx recovery
Q4 commentary returned to 'muted' CapEx activity, suggesting limited improvement
Q4'25DeliveredContinue to expect the EPS impact of tariffs for fiscal '25 to be mitigated
Maintained EPS neutrality on tariffs through pricing actions
Q4'25ExceededFree cash flow conversion of 100% in fiscal '25
Delivered 114% including $70M voluntary pension contribution
Q4'25MissedAnnual recurring revenue to grow high single digits for full year
Delivered 8% which is barely high single digits, consistently below double-digit targets
Q4'25ExceededAbout $0.30 of compensation costs in Q4
Actually $0.45 impact due to outperformance driving higher incentive comp
Q4'25Exceeded$250 million full year productivity savings target
Delivered $325 million, beating target by 30% and achieving it a quarter early
Q4'25ExceededSegment margin to be similar to Q3 on slightly higher revenue
Q4 margin of 22.5% vs Q3 21.2%, +130 bps improvement not just 'similar'
Q4'25ExceededQ4 sales to be up low single digits sequentially with high single-digit year-over-year growth
Delivered +13% YoY growth, well above high single-digit expectation
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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