| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 16, 2026 | 10/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 17, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 17, 2026 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-16 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | 2025-10-17 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | We expect to maintain a mid-thirties beta Ongoing guidance, not a dated promise. Current call widens the stated range to 'mid to high-30%', an upward revision in expected deposit costs rather than a clean delivery or miss. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We continue to expect full-year 2026 net charge-offs to be between 40 and 50 basis points Year not complete. Current call revises expectation toward the low end of that same range, a favorable revision but not a resolution. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | For full year 2026, we continue to expect adjusted non-interest expense to be up between 1.5% and 3.5%, and we expect to deliver full-year adjusted positive operating leverage Fiscal year not yet complete; current call reaffirms the same range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We will begin a pilot family and friends... sometime in September or October... likely in the first quarter of 2027... complete by mid-year to sometime in the third quarter of 2027 Not yet a dated/closed milestone. Current call reaffirms the pilot will begin 'in the next week or 2', consistent with being on schedule, but full conversion remains a 2027 event. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | We would expect share buybacks in the third quarter to pick up a bit Buybacks rose to $95M in Q3 from $59M in Q2, a clear pickup. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | We continue to expect quarterly revenue to increase within our $90 million-$105 million range, trending towards the lower end of the range in the third quarter Capital markets income rose 23% sequentially and was called 'record revenue', suggesting it landed well above the 'lower end' expectation, though the exact dollar figure was never disclosed on the call. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | We expect to be flat to slightly up [NIM] in the third quarter NIM rose 2bps to 3.68%, consistent with 'flat to slightly up' from the 3.66% Q2 exit. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Third quarter net interest income is expected to increase approximately 2% Q3 NII actually increased 2% linked-quarter, matching the guide exactly. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Positive operating leverage for full year Still committed but with fees trending lower, getting harder |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Capital markets revenue $90-105M quarterly Now guiding to lower end, suggests missing original expectations |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain mid-30s deposit beta Beta at 37% over the cycle, within guided range |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Exit year with NIM at low 3.70s At 3.66% currently, needs 4bp expansion over two quarters |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Deploy commercial lending platform this summer Successfully implemented per John's comments |
| Q2'26 | Pending | NII growth of 2.5%-4% for full year Q2 up 2% as promised, but needs acceleration to hit midpoint |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Full year average loan growth low single digits On track with 2% Q2 growth, need similar H2 to hit target |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Launch deposit system pilot in Q3 2026 Pushed to 'later this year', clear timeline slippage |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Core system conversion timeline on track User testing phase proceeding as planned for Q3 pilot |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 2025 net charge-offs between 40-50 basis points Peaked at 59 bps in Q4, trending toward normalization |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2025 adjusted noninterest expense up 1.5% to 3.5% Came in at 2% growth with positive operating leverage |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Capital markets quarterly revenue $90-105 million Second-best year ever despite Q4 seasonality |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2025 deposits up low single digits Achieved with strong customer acquisition while reducing costs |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Full year 2025 average loans up low single digits Loans were relatively stable vs 2024, headwinds from strategic runoff exceeded expectations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Positive operating leverage for full year 2025 Achieved 140 bps of adjusted positive operating leverage |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Capital markets Q4 guidance $95-105 million range Don't see Q4 actual disclosed but guiding 2026 to same range suggests miss |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full-year adjusted noninterest income growth 4-5% vs 2024 Delivered 5% growth despite Q4 seasonal decline |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Another $300 million portfolio runoff to work through in Q4 Claim 'most' is behind them but haven't confirmed the final $300M cleanup |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full-year net charge-offs approximately 50 basis points Came in at 47 bps for full year despite Q4 spike to 59 bps |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Meaningful decline in deposit costs in Q4 with CD maturities Delivered 16 bps decline in interest-bearing deposit costs with 36% beta |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Net interest margin to rebound into mid-360s in Q4 Hit 3.70% but needed nonrecurring items - without those it was mid-360s as promised |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Full-year adjusted non-interest income to grow 2.5-3.5% (Q2) Raised guidance to 4-5% growth range |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Capital Markets income modest increase in $85-95M range for Q3 (Q2) Delivered $90M+ representing new record, above guidance range |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Full-year deposit balances up modestly versus prior year (Q2) Raised guidance to low single digits growth |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Third quarter losses generally in line with Q2, then decline in Q4 (Q2) Q3 losses higher at 55 bps vs 47 bps in Q2, and Q4 still expected elevated |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Net interest margin expected to remain in low to mid-360s for remainder of year (Q2) Q3 margin at 359 bps, below low-360s guidance |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Net interest income expected to be stable to modestly higher in Q3 (Q2 guidance) Delivered stable NII despite some headwinds |
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