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Management credibility scorecard

Blue Owl Capital (OWL)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call July 30, 2026
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83%
Kept of 12 resolved
10
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
6
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · heavy diluter

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26July 30, 20267/122 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags20Call sheet →
Q1'26April 30, 202610/123 medium, 5 low flags32Call sheet →
Q4'25February 5, 20268/122 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26DeliveredBottoming of evergreen inflows in May 1st close
July showed 50% increase from May, though off a low base
Q2'26PendingWrapping up GP Stakes vintage this year
Still on track per commentary
Q2'26PendingInitial close of digital infrastructure flagship in back half of this year
Maintained timeline
Q2'26PendingNet Lease Fund 6 virtually fully called by this summer
Changed to 'by the end of the year', pushed back timeline
Q2'26Delivered58.5% FRE margins for 2026
Already at 58.5% in Q2, achieved early
Q2'26PendingWe think we can beat visible alpha consensus estimates for 2026 (FRE $1.02, DE $0.89)
Reaffirmed but with less conviction, now just saying 'we think we can beat'
Q1'26ExceededLow double-digit FRE growth for 2025
Delivered 12% FRE per share growth, meeting the low end of guidance.
Q1'26MissedHit $7.5B hard cap for net lease seven by end of 2025
At $5.8B, now targeting end of 2026. Another timeline miss on major fundraising.
Q1'26MissedDigital infrastructure fund four initial close in back half of 2025
Pushed to back half of 2026 - this is a one-year delay in flagship fundraising.
Q1'26DeliveredNet lease fund six fully deployed within three years of final close
Two-thirds called with visibility to be fully called by summer, well ahead of schedule.
Q1'26Exceeded58.5% FRE margins for 2026
Q1 delivered 58.4% vs 58.3% full year 2025, ahead of pace for annual target.
Q1'26PendingModest increase in FRE per share growth rate in 2026 vs 2025
Still early but Q1 showed 14% FRE growth vs 12% full year 2025, so on track.
Q4'25DeliveredContinue to meet all tender requests as every quarter since inception
Met all Q4 redemption requests despite elevated volumes
Q4'25ExceededODiT first close in early 2026
Moved up timeline to December 2025 first close, ahead of schedule
Q4'25PendingNet Lease Fund VI nearly fully deployed within next couple quarters
Still deploying, committed 90% but only deployed 50% - timeline tracking
Q4'25ExceededFRE margins of 57-58% for 2025
Delivered 58.3%, slightly above the guided range
Q4'25DeliveredMeaningful acceleration in Real Assets management fee growth
Guided to mid-single digit Q4 growth annualizing to ~20%, as promised
Q4'25DeliveredSimilar Q4 fundraising to Q2/Q3 levels for GP Stakes
Hit $2.7B in Q4 fundraising for GP Strategic Capital, consistent with guidance
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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