| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 29, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 24, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 29, 2025 | 7/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Delivered | LPG export dock targeted contracting utilization, management 'not concerned at all about finishing the contracting' Reached the targeted 80% contracting threshold for the 200,000 bpd LPG export capacity. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Delaware Basin processing expansion (110 MMcf/d) completion in Q3 Reaffirmed 'on track to complete 110 million cubic feet per day of Delaware Basin plant expansion projects during the third quarter'; period not yet ended at call date. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Medford Phase 1 fractionation (100,000 bpd) completion in Q4 Reaffirmed 'on track for completion during the fourth quarter'; period not yet ended. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Denver area refined products pipeline expansion to be in service 'midyear' Placed in service as of August 1, slightly past the strict 'midyear' framing but confirmed operational with 35,000 bpd capacity. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 net income/EBITDA guidance midpoints of $3.5B / $8.25B Raised to $3.6B net income / $8.35B EBITDA in Q2; this is a revision, not a delivery or miss, per full-year not yet ended. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 CapEx guidance of $2.7B-$3.2B Reaffirmed unchanged in Q2 but now expected to land at the 'upper end' of the range; full year not complete. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Higher volumes and completed projects in back half of year Key projects still scheduled for Q3-Q4 delivery |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | No material downtime from winter weather Explicitly stated no material asset downtime from Storm Firm |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Winter storm impacts already incorporated in guidance January volumes 10% below expectations but guidance unchanged |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Delaware Basin processing expansions in third quarter 110 million cubic feet per day still on track for Q3 completion |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Shadowfax plant completion by end of first quarter 150 million cubic feet per day relocated to Midland Basin completed in Q1 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | First quarter to be lowest EBITDA quarter of the year $2.0B Q1 vs $8.25B annual guidance implies significant backend weighting |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Mid- to high single-digit EBITDA growth for 2026 Quietly abandoned this guidance, actual 2026 midpoint implies only 1% growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Capital expenditures of $2.8B to $3.2B in 2025 Stayed within range, major projects on track |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Long-term leverage target of 3.5x by Q4 2026 Now taking longer than expected due to lower EBITDA denominator |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8B to $8.45B Hit $8.02B, within range but toward lower end |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 net income guidance range of $3.17B to $3.65B Came in at $3.39B, comfortably within range despite headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Approximately $250M of synergy-related adjusted EBITDA in 2025 Hit exactly $250M as promised, part of $500M total since Magellan close |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Denver refined products pipeline mid-2026 completion Reaffirmed timeline, no changes to mid-2026 target |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Conway-to-Mid-Continent connections by year-end 2025 Still on track for completion by year-end 2025 |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: Mid- to high single-digit EBITDA growth for 2026 Quietly removed this language from slide deck, now says 'stay tuned' for Q1 2026 guidance |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: $250M synergies for full year 2025 On track with nearly $500M total synergies realized since Magellan close, Q4 will determine if they hit the annual target |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Houston connections (Galena Park, East Houston, Pasadena) online Q3 All three critical Houston connections came online in Q3 as scheduled |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Reach 1.6 Bcf/d in Permian by July Actually hit 1.6 Bcf/d in July as promised, though Q3 averaged slightly lower at 1.55 Bcf/d |
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