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Call sheet · Q1'26

ONEOK (OKE)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 29, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is data center projects ballooning 10x in size - these aren't the small hookups everyone expected but material infrastructure builds that could reshape OKE's growth profile. The obvious headline is the guidance raise, but it's built on hoping geopolitical commodity premiums stick rather than locked operational improvements. The binding constraint is pipeline capacity - Waha differentials die in Q3 when new pipelines come online, and management gave no specifics on replacement sources. Norton's quote about hyperscalers needing '5-gigawatt facilities' requiring 'reaching back into our systems' reveals these aren't add-on projects but core infrastructure plays. My view changes if they announce signed data center contracts with specific capacity and timeline commitments in the next 60 days.

The 30-second version

  • Data center projects quietly ballooned from $50M to $400-700M each - this is the real growth story
  • Raised 2026 guidance to $8.25B EBITDA midpoint but it's built on market optimism, not locked contracts
  • Waha-Katy differentials carrying the story but pipelines kill this in Q3 - no plan B disclosed

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Net Income$977M Q4 2025 ($5.42 full year)$776M Q1 202612% growth year-over-year vs Q1 2025
Adjusted EBITDA$2.15B Q4 2025 ($8.02B full year)$2.0B Q1 202613% year-over-year growth
2026 EBITDA Guidance$8.1B midpoint (February)$8.25B midpoint+$150M guidance raise
Rocky Mountain NGL VolumesRecord volumes in 202511% year-over-year increase Q1Strong momentum continues
Gulf Coast Permian NGL VolumesGrowth expected30%+ year-over-year increaseThird-party plants finally connected
Refined Products VolumesStrong Q4 performance12% year-over-year increaseWide crack spreads driving utilization
Natural Gas Processing - Mid-ContinentSteady performance7% volume increaseProducer activity holding steady
Capital Expenditure Guidance$2.7B-$3.2B$2.7B-$3.2B unchangedNo change despite project scaling
Data Center Project Size$50M originally expected$400M-$700M actual projects10x-14x larger than initial estimates
LPG Export Dock ContractingInterest buildingAccelerated customer requestsMiddle East conflict driving demand

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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