| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 13, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 15, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 14, 2026 | 11/12 | 5 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 21, 2026 | 10/12 | 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Milvexian data readouts expected toward end of this year or beginning of next Management refined the timeline this quarter: secondary stroke data possibly 'even this year,' AFib data explicitly pushed to 'next year,' which is a clarification rather than a contradiction of the original range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | DePuy Synthes separation on track for mid-2027 Timeline reaffirmed this quarter with management now 'leaning towards a spin' as the preferred vehicle. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 operational sales growth guidance of 6.5%-7.1% Full year not complete; range revised upward to 6.7%-7.1% this quarter, a positive revision, not a delivered/missed outcome yet. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 free cash flow guidance of approximately $21B Full year not complete; guidance reaffirmed this quarter with Q3 FCF of over $6B reported. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | OTTAVA expected to receive FDA regulatory approval FDA granted de novo authorization for OTTAVA in July, and J&J signed its first commercial customer. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Abiomed expected to show gradual improvement back to double-digit growth over the coming quarters The open-ended recovery remains pending. Q3 declined 1.5%, modestly better than Q2; near-term growth wording does not establish withdrawal of the longer-term double-digit ambition. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | MedTech performance expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026 Only one of two H2 quarters has reported; Q3 result (2.5% growth) actually decelerated from Q2's 3.6%, so the trajectory is running counter to the promise with one quarter left to prove it. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q1: 'Fairly consistent operational sales growth throughout the year' Q2 decelerated to 5.6% from Q1's 6.4% |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q1: 'More than 50 basis point improvement in adjusted pre-tax operating margin' Now guiding to 75 bps improvement, ahead of plan |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: 'INLEXZO permanent J-code will enable broader patient access and serve as important catalyst' Claims 75% Q/Q growth but won't disclose absolute dollars, suggesting still small |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: 'ICOTYDE has the potential to be one of our largest products ever' 10,000 patients in 3+ months suggests $300-500M annual run rate, far from 'largest ever' |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Q1: 'MedTech acceleration in second half' Already walking back with 'tempered expectations' on Abiomed |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: 'We remain confident in our full year free cash flow outlook of approximately $21 billion' H1 at $8.7B suggests $12.3B needed in H2, seems aggressive given investment commitments |
| Q1'26 | Pending | TREMFYA exceeding $10 billion in peak year sales Strong Q1 growth of 63.8% with IBD momentum supporting this target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | At least 50 basis points pretax operating margin improvement in 2026 Q1 margins compressed significantly but management says heavy investment early in year |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Free cash flow elevation to approximately $21 billion in 2026 Q1 run rate of $6B suggests challenge, but management maintains confidence |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | OTTAVA robotic surgery system regulatory progress Second IDE trial underway, progressing through de novo pathway |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | ICOTYDE U.S. launch in 2026 initially in psoriasis Launched in March with day-one readiness and strong early uptake |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 2026 will be a year of accelerated growth Q1 growth of 6.4% operational vs 7.1% in Q4 2025 - not accelerating yet |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Accelerated MedTech growth MedTech grew 5.8% vs 5.6% in Q3, with improvements across focus areas. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | STELARA erosion following HUMIRA curve 48.6% decline in Q4 tracks with expected biosimilar erosion pattern. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continued strong TREMFYA momentum in IBD Delivered 65% growth vs 40% in Q3, well ahead of expectations. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Ribrovant plus Lascluse subcutaneous approval FDA approval received for first subcutaneous EGFR therapy, reducing administration from hours to minutes. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | CAPLYTA approval in adjunctive major depressive disorder FDA approval received in November, launched in US as expected. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | FDA de novo submission for Ottava in early 2026 Delivered in Q4 2025, ahead of schedule. Now submitted and awaiting approval. |
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