| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 6, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 25, 2026 | 5/12 | 5 high, 3 medium flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 4, 2025 | 6/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | August 7, 2025 | 6/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | May 8, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | March 3, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | November 13, 2024 | 7/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | August 13, 2024 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | BeaconPoint campus: 700MW available in Q1 (2027), additional 300MW within 24 months thereafter Building 2 lease (352MW) now brings the campus to a full gigawatt on paper, but actual power/data hall delivery against this schedule has not occurred yet; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Targeting Q2 2027 for the initial Riverbend data hall delivery Construction updates this quarter (steel erection, foundations, slab pours) are consistent with the timeline but the delivery date itself has not yet arrived; actual delivery not stated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | CO2 note mandatory redeemable 'as soon as next month,' with force conversion possible 'as soon as late June' Conversion actually completed in May, ahead of the stated late-June window, eliminating all parent recourse debt. |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Power expansion discussions with Entergy No concrete progress disclosed, shifted to 'optimization' language |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Disciplined capital allocation 90% LTC financing and equity recovery demonstrates capital efficiency |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Focus on execution and scale in 2026 Announced Beacon Point quickly but actual construction execution untested |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Strengthening balance sheet through refinancing FalconX refi reduced rate 200bps and freed $260M in Bitcoin collateral |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Converting 8.5GW pipeline to contracted opportunities Converted 352MW but pipeline actually shrunk to 8.4GW |
| Q1'26 | Pending | River Bend construction tracking to Q2 2027 delivery Reaffirmed timeline but added hedging language about being 'conservative' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | American Bitcoin to scale rapidly as standalone entity Hit 25 exahash and generated $64M revenue in first quarter |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Greater transparency into pipeline stages Actually provided less detail on conversion rates and timing between stages |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintaining capital discipline, no trend chasing Admits to walking away from deals, though this may be hurting momentum |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Focusing on commercializing the 4 sites representing 1,530MW Still no announced deals on any of the 4 sites despite 'ton of demand' claims |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 1 gigawatt expansion discussions at River Bend with Entergy Now just says 'the power is there' and 'optimizing delivery timelines', no concrete progress |
| Q4'25 | Missed | River Bend delivery expectation end of 2026 Pushed to 'beginning of Q2' with 60-day intervals, effectively 6+ month delay on full delivery |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Strategic context evolution for Bitcoin holdings Still holding, no concrete monetization despite saying 'not committed to holding indefinitely' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Vegas site full ramp to 205MW Site energized, transitioned from Bitmain to ABTC agreements |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Deliver proof of execution on Power First strategy 1,530MW development announced, though no deals signed yet |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Riverbend commercialization with investment-grade tenants Still in discussions, expanded scope to 1GW instead of closing 300MW deal |
| Q3'25 | Pending | American Bitcoin public listing in coming weeks S-4 declared effective, on track but not yet closed |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Maintain high-velocity power origination Pipeline flat at 10.8 GW, first quarter without growth |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Advance River Bend development Initial site work underway but no customer announcement yet |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Execute American Bitcoin carve-out Launched April 1 as commercial entity with agreements in place |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Complete American Bitcoin fleet upgrade Achieved 9.3 exahash at 20 j/TH efficiency target |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Vega site energization in Q2 Partially energized at quarter end as promised |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Strategic alternatives for natural gas assets Sean deflected, saying 'stay tuned' with no concrete update |
| Q1'25 | Pending | River Bend as large-scale AI opportunity Land acquired but still seeking first tenant; only 2% of capital deployed |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Maintaining competitive energy costs Energy costs rose 29% YoY to $51.71/MWh despite 'competitive advantage' claims |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Converting AI/HPC customer interest to contracts Still no definitive agreements despite 'deep conversations' for multiple quarters |
| Q1'25 | Missed | $135M annualized revenue from Vega Quietly reduced to $125M this quarter, citing curtailment adjustments |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Vega energization in Q2 2025 Reiterated Q2 target but now with reduced revenue expectations |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Launch Highrise AI GPU-as-a-Service Launched with 1,000 H100s, generating $1.8M in Q4 |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Develop pipeline of front-of-meter opportunities Pipeline grew to 12.3GW but no conversions to actual projects yet |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Continue managed services to offset G&A Ionic terminated, Marathon fee collected, but no forward revenue visibility |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Generate nine figures of annualized revenue from Vega and GPU business Vega reduced to $125M from $135M. GPU revenue not quantified |
| Q4'24 | Pending | 430MW of AI-suitable capacity with power by end of 2025 Completely dropped from narrative. No update on these 'particularly promising' projects |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Vega energization in first half 2025 Maintained Q2 2025 target, construction proceeding |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Convert development pipeline to committed projects Added to pipeline but zero firm AI commitments announced despite 'active discussions' |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Fleet upgrade negotiations with manufacturers Executed 31,000 unit S21 purchase for Q1 2025 delivery |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Pause managed services business development Maintained pause, using it as cost offset rather than growth driver |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Continue to strengthen internal development capabilities Vega's 180 kW/rack liquid cooling design shows real innovation |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Energize Texas Panhandle site in first half of 2025 Still targeting H1 2025 but hedging with 'quarter or two after' language |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Begin recognizing GPU-as-a-Service revenue in Q3 Technically delivered but refusing to quantify suggests immaterial revenue |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Double infrastructure development team from 8 to 20 No update provided on hiring progress |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Share updates on committed pipeline projects Only announced one conversion (205MW Texas) from 1,100MW pipeline |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Reduce cost basis through curtailment software Achieved $0.032/kWh vs $0.04 target mentioned in Q1 |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Exit all third-party hosted facilities Confirmed exit from Kearney and Granbury, now self-mining only at owned sites |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Complete Ionic Digital Cedarvale site energization Initial energization of 215MW site completed as stated |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Energize Salt Creek site Completed 63MW energization as promised, at stated sub-$275k/MW cost |
| Q2'24 | Missed | GPU cluster to generate revenue in second half 2024 at $20M run rate Now just 'coming weeks' with zero mention of the $20M target. This is textbook goalpost moving |
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