| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | August 17, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | May 4, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | February 2, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | November 3, 2025 | 3/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | August 18, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | May 5, 2025 | 4/12 | 4 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | February 3, 2025 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | November 4, 2024 | 4/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | August 19, 2024 | 6/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Pending | "Qualify and ramp multiple merchant transceiver programs" - Q3 statement. Q4 only mentioned early ramp of transceiver programs; no concrete merchant volumes disclosed yet. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Construction of Building 10 on track for completion end of 2026 Accelerated with additional floor by September, now completing January 2027 |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Trends appear favorable for continued sequential growth in datacom Datacom declined 6% sequentially, opposite of promised growth |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Several datacom projects with hyperscale direct and merchant vendors Announced two hyperscale programs shipping and multiple merchant programs qualifying |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 250,000 sq ft of Building 10 ready by middle of calendar year On track for June completion per management commentary |
| Q3'26 | Missed | Second source EML approval should benefit us this quarter and future quarters Datacom declined 6% sequentially despite second source, supply constraints actually broadened |
| Q3'26 | Missed | HPC revenue north of $150 million when fully ramped over next couple quarters Pushed out by one quarter due to 'technology transition', now targeting Q4 FY2026 or Q1 FY2027 |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain operating leverage with revenue growth outpacing OpEx Operating margin expanded 30bps to 10.9% |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Automotive would be 'flat to slightly down' in Q1 Down 5% sequentially as guided |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to see growth in telecom driven by DCI Telecom up 17% QoQ, though DCI only up 3% |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Building 10 on track for end of 2026 completion Accelerated first 250k sqft to mid-2026, suggests strong demand |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Expected datacom to decline sequentially in Q1 Declined 1% sequentially as guided |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | HPC program would 'scale considerably over the coming quarters' Jumped from $15M to $86M in one quarter, 473% growth |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Maintain gross margins in mid-12% range Slipped to 12.3% with more pressure guided for Q2 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | HPC program to drive strong growth in Q1 $15M contribution as promised, though starting from zero |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | New telecom system to ramp in volume production Contributed to telecom staying flat rather than declining |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Very optimistic about datacom growth trends for fiscal 2026 Already walking this back with 'constraints will persist' language |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Datacom entering meaningful growth phase for 1.6T products Datacom actually declined 1% sequentially despite 1.6T ramp claims |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Telecom momentum to continue into Q1, especially with next-generation system ramp Telecom was completely flat QoQ at $412M, no momentum despite 'system ramp' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Automotive sequential growth may moderate Automotive essentially flat at $128M vs $129M in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Telecom strength to extend into Q4 Telecom grew to $412M, up from $406M in Q3 |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Building 10 construction on 18-month timeline from January start Now considering acceleration options, suggesting stronger demand than anticipated |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Steepest part of 1.6T ramp yet to come Now saying it will happen in FY26, effectively pushed out |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Return to datacom growth as 1.6T demand increases Actually guiding datacom DOWN in Q1 despite claiming strong 1.6T demand |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Amazon partnership to provide revenue boost starting in FY2026 Minimal Q4 contribution, still saying FY26 ramp but no specific numbers yet |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Operating leverage to offset FX pressure Operating margin compressed 40 bps despite flat OpEx |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Ciena win contributing in late fiscal 2025 Still described as 'yet to ramp' with revenue pushed to FY26 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Automotive revenue to continue to grow sequentially Automotive grew 24% sequentially to $129M |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Further growth in telecom driven by recent system wins Telecom grew 17% sequentially to $406M, though Ciena hasn't actually ramped yet |
| Q3'25 | Pending | We have ample capacity to meet near to medium-term requirements Now admitting capacity isn't fully fungible and they're locked into 1.6T configuration |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Datacom revenue trends will improve as 1.6T begins to ramp later this calendar year Datacom fell 16% sequentially; 1.6T is still just 'qualification bills' |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Datacom growth to continue Declined 9% sequentially, opposite of growth |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Operating margins to remain consistent 10.6% vs 10.7% prior quarter despite FX headwinds |
| Q2'25 | Exceeded | More active in share repurchase program Deployed $69M vs $0 in Q1, extremely aggressive execution |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Breaking ground on Building 10 by end of calendar year Broke ground last month as promised |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Automotive to continue strong momentum into Q2 Grew 32% YoY, maintained $100M+ quarterly run rate |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Telecom revenue growth for first time in six quarters Achieved 24% YoY growth, exceeding expectations |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Maintain industry-leading operating margins Operating margin held at 10.7% despite FX headwinds |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Siena to be significant revenue in 6-9 months Timeline slipped to '9 months or so', already pushing out before ramping |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Be more active in share repurchase program Made this promise for 'remainder of fiscal year' after buying zero in Q1 |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Continue to be beneficiary of datacom growth Datacom grew 5% QoQ and 36% YoY, though decelerating |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Telecom system wins to make meaningful contributions in H2 FY25 On track per commentary but no specific revenue numbers provided |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Break ground on Building 10 during fiscal year 2025 Softened to 'by end of calendar year', still technically achievable but timeline loosening |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Working on other GPU/merchant/hyperscaler opportunities Still 'working hard' but zero announcements or tangible progress disclosed |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Mid-single digit tax rate for fiscal year Q4 at 4.6%, maintaining mid-single digit range |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Continued evaluation of Building 10 Not just evaluated but committed, breaking ground this fiscal year |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | 100G wind-down to complete 100G now below 10% of optical, essentially complete |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Q3: Expected datacom slightly up, telecom decline in Q4 Datacom grew 3% sequential, telecom declined 1% as guided |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Automotive revenue to increase sequentially in Q4 Automotive grew 17% sequentially to $86M, strong recovery |
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