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Management credibility scorecard

Estée Lauder Companies (EL)

5 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q4'26) · latest call August 19, 2026
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100%
Kept of 14 resolved
14
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
12
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q4'26August 19, 20267/121 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags10Call sheet →
Q3'26May 1, 202610/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags20Call sheet →
Q2'26February 5, 202610/122 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q1'262025-10-3011/121 medium, 5 low flags20Call sheet →
Q4'25August 20, 202511/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q4'26Delivered"We will accelerate growth in North America" (Q3)
Q4 comment that North America returned to organic growth and mid‑single‑digit retail sales
Q3'26PendingComplete PRGP business case approvals by end of FY26
Expanded program scope but maintained timeline commitment
Q3'26DeliveredChina ecosystem including travel retail to improve to mid-single digit
China posted high single-digit growth, travel retail showed sequential improvement
Q3'26PendingAmericas sales expected to be flat for FY26
Still guiding flat despite Q3 decline, implies Q4 needs to accelerate
Q3'26PendingInnovation to represent at least 25% of sales in FY26
Not specifically updated this quarter, still tracking to this target
Q3'26ExceededOperating margin between 9.8-10.2% for FY26
Raised guidance to 10.7-11%, significant beat on margin expansion
Q3'26PendingBack half of FY26 would see low single-digit growth with Q4 stronger than Q3
Q3 delivered 2% growth, in line with expectation. Q4 strength still to be determined
Q2'26DeliveredExpand Amazon Premium Beauty presence
Now 12 brands across 10 markets, added TikTok Shop
Q2'26DeliveredStrengthen ties in specialty multi with MAC at Sephora
MAC entering US Sephora announced in Q2
Q2'26ExceededIncrease innovation launched in <1 year from 10% to 30%
Already at 19% vs 16% expected, ahead of pace
Q2'26PendingOnline to exceed 31% of reported sales in FY26
On track per management but no specific percentage given
Q2'26PendingInnovation to represent at least 25% of sales
On track according to management, but no Q2 specific disclosure
Q2'26DeliveredOperating margin expansion for first time in four years
Expanded 290 bps in Q2, raised full-year guidance
Q2'26DeliveredReturn to organic sales growth for fiscal 2026
Delivered 4% growth in Q2 after 3% in Q1
Q1'26DeliveredTravel Retail inventory rightsized for forecasted demand
Management confirmed back to right level and managing based on demand
Q1'26PendingNew R&D leader announcement in coming weeks
Still pending from Q4 call, now saying 'coming weeks' again
Q1'26PendingInnovation representing over 25% of sales in fiscal 2026
Reiterated target, pipeline appears on track but execution still ahead
Q1'26DeliveredOnline to reach higher mix beyond 31% in fiscal 2025
Double-digit online growth in Q1 suggests continued mix expansion
Q1'26PendingSignificantly reduce discounts as part of sales growth strategy
Mentioned continued progress but no specific metrics provided on discount reduction
Q1'26PendingReturn to growth in fiscal 2026 and pursuit of solid double-digit operating margin
On track with 3% Q1 growth and 7.3% operating margin, but full year still to be delivered
Q4'25DeliveredSequential improvement in retail sales growth ex-travel retail
Continued sequential improvement with share gains in key markets
Q4'25PendingInnovation back to representing over 25% of sales
Targeting 25%+ for fiscal 2026, with 16% launched within year vs historical 10%
Q4'25ExceededOver 2,600 net position reductions through restructuring
Now over 60% of expected gross benefits approved, ahead of schedule
Q4'25ExceededContinued gross margin expansion through PRGP benefits
Achieved 230 bps expansion, better than expected despite volume deleverage
Q4'25DeliveredMaintain appropriate trade inventory levels in travel retail
Ended fiscal 2025 with healthier trade inventory for forecasted demand
Q4'25PendingReturn to sales growth in fiscal 2026 if meaningful tariff resolution
Reaffirmed growth commitment for FY26, now with specific low single-digit range
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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