Estée Lauder Companies (EL)

The sleeper story is AI implementation actually driving measurable ROI (31% increase in media campaign returns) while competitors are still talking about AI investments. Everyone will focus on the fiscal 2026 growth guidance, but the real story is they've strategically retreated from volatile travel retail (now 15% vs 29% at peak) to build a more predictable business model. The binding constraint isn't demand - they're gaining share in all major markets - it's the retail-to-net sales gap that's keeping growth hostage to inventory management. As Stephane said, 'We will not let evolving channel preference be a disruptor to us like it has been in the past.' My view changes if the portfolio review produces less than $1B in proceeds or if the retail/net gap doesn't close by mid-2026.