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Call sheet · Q2'26

Dow (DOW)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 23, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The Barry shutdown removing 25% of European capacity is the sleeper story, creating lasting structural change nobody's modeling correctly. Yes, Q2 was a blowout at $2.3B EBITDA, but the June polyethylene price collapse despite Middle East disruption signals demand is weaker than management admits. The binding constraint is polyethylene pricing power, not supply disruptions; they're announcing tiny $0.05 increases while markets dropped $0.15. Management's tell: 'We're going to work on maximizing the quarter, as we always do.' My view changes if Q3 EBITDA exceeds $1.7B guide or if PE margins actually improve from June levels.

The 30-second version

  • The Barry shutdown is the real story: removing 25% of European siloxane capacity while maintaining integration
  • Polyethylene pricing power evaporating faster than expected despite Middle East disruption continuing
  • Transform to Outperform suddenly delivering $700M vs $500M guide, but SAR actually increased $200M YoY

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$9.8B (-19% YoY)$12.1B (+20% YoY)+23% sequential surge
Operating EBITDA$873M$2.3B+164% sequential explosion
EPS (reported)$0.48$1.85+285% sequential
Operating Cash Flow-$450M$1.2BPositive $1.65B swing
Free Cash Flow-$950M$600MBack to positive territory
P&SP Revenue$4.9B$6.4B+31% sequential acceleration
P&SP EBIT$165M$1.3B+688% margin expansion
II&I EBIT$35M$246M+603% on supply disruptions
PMC EBIT$140M$133M-5% despite volume gains
Global PE Pricing+40% YoY mentioned+40% YoY sustainedJune $0.15/lb decline hitting Q3

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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