| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 27, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 28, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-03-16 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | December 3, 2025 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 adjusted EPS guide of $6.70-$7.10 Period has not ended; management raised this to $7.70-$8.05 this quarter, which is a revision, not a delivery or miss, per the fiscal-year framework. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | 'But we believe traffic will continue to improve over the course of the year.' Traffic turned positive (+0.4%) a full quarter earlier than the plan laid out three months prior. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 guide: net sales $4.8B-$4.9B, comp 2.5%-3.5%, adjusted diluted EPS $1.00-$1.15 Actual net sales $4.9B, comp 3.7% (above high end); underlying ex-tariff EPS of $1.39 beat the $1.15 high end of the range. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Shrink improvement through operational initiatives Shrink improved year-over-year, though management calls it 'early days' |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Inventory turns improvement supporting efficiency Inventory down 9% vs sales up 7.2%, significant working capital efficiency |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Store standards improvement across fleet Net 1/3 of stores improved, down from 42% below standards to less than 1/3 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Multi-price expansion driving productivity gains Stores with mature multi-price showing higher productivity, though stopped quantifying penetration |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Corporate SG&A declining toward 2% target by 2028 Q4 corporate SG&A leveraged 40bps, on track for longer-term target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Traffic to contribute positively to full year 2026 Now pushed to second half recovery only, weakened from full year expectation |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Traffic expected to improve with restickering completion Traffic still negative in Q4 but they guide positive contribution for 2026. We'll see. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | High-teens EPS growth for 2026 based on Investor Day algorithm $6.50-6.90 guidance vs $5.60-5.80 in 2025 = high-teens growth as promised. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Corporate SG&A net of TSA to decline 3% year over year Stewart confirmed they over-delivered on corporate cost cuts despite lower TSA income. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Dollar Tree segment SG&A deleverage of approximately 120 basis points Guided to 120bps, in line with restickering and wage pressure expectations. |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Gross margin expansion of 50-60 basis points for full 2025 Delivered 59 basis points for full year, ahead of guidance range. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Multi-price dynamics to play out across every holiday and strengthen as penetration expands Halloween was record $200M with 25% more margin dollars vs 2022. Christmas also strong. |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: Zone pricing still something we want to look at Zone pricing not mentioned at all this quarter, appears shelved |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q2: Full-year gross margin improvement of approximately 50 basis points Now expecting 50-60 bps improvement, raised from 50 bps |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Approximately 400 new Dollar Tree store openings for full year 254 opened through Q2, on track per management |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Target of approximately 5,000 3.0 format store conversions by year-end 3,600 completed through Q2, no Q3 update provided |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Convert remaining 31 Family Dollar combo stores by year-end 26 converted through Q3, on track for year-end completion |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Pricing actions started late Q2 would continue rolling out Re-stickering peaked in Q3 as planned, now largely complete |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Expected Q3 comp to be within 4-6% full-year range 4.2% comp came in within guidance range |
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