| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 10, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 11, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | March 16, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 10, 2025 | 6/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | August 11, 2025 | 2/12 | 4 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | May 12, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | March 31, 2025 | 4/12 | 3 high, 5 medium flags | 1 | 4 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'24 | May 9, 2024 | 4/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued debt reduction Net debt down to $42.4M, below 1x EBITDA as promised |
| Q1'26 | Pending | BrightLoop commercial demonstration at Massillon Still called a 'key priority' but no commercial contracts or timeline provided |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Full payoff of remaining December 2026 bonds Paid $15M in Q1, but $69M remains with only vague 'timely fashion' commitment |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Maintain financial discipline Operating cash flow hit 5-year high of RMB 35.1M |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Market Intelligence would remain weak Down 24% YoY as they predicted |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue global expansion Added 18 new countries in Q4 alone, now in 70+ countries |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | NDR would exceed 100% Hit 103% for trailing 12 months |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | EngageLab would maintain triple-digit growth Delivered 186% YoY ARR growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Achieve profitability in Q4 Hit RMB 1.5M GAAP profit, first ever full year profit |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Work with customers on plant extensions and efficiency Parts & Services hit record levels, validating execution |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Progress BrightLoop commercial development Still in 'discussions' with no commercial contracts signed |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Alleviate going concern doubt Achieved through Diamond Power sale and refinancing |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Continue exploring sale of nonstrategic assets No new asset sales announced, appears stalled |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Return to positive cash flows in 2025 excluding BrightLoop Completely dropped from discussion this quarter, concerning silence |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Make key announcements on large upgrades and new builds by end of year Applied Digital announcement technically fulfills this but full NTP still pending |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Convert $7.6B pipeline to new bookings Backlog actually declined 21% QoQ despite 'strong demand' claims |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Continue to explore further debt refinancing options Bond exchange completed, though more work needed on remaining $370M+ |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Work with Kanadevia Inova on North American waste energy No updates on joint opportunities since Denmark sale announcement |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Additional prospects for stronger financial performance throughout 2025 Q2 EBITDA strong but won't provide H2 guidance, mixed signals |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Hydrogen production from Massillon by mid-2026 Now seems doubtful given pivot to steam and lack of financing progress |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Complete Massillon financing in next few months Was supposed to be done by now per Q1 timeline, still needs $40-50M |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Return to positive cash flows in 2025 Modified to 'H2 will be positive' and 'excluding BrightLoop,' moving goalposts |
| Q1'25 | Pending | BrightLoop bookings of $1B by 2028 No evidence of progress, still in 'opportunity phase' |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Working on refinancing current debt Only addressed 40% of 2026 maturities so far |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Sale of certain other assets Sold Denmark subsidiary for $20M as promised |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Producing hydrogen at Massillon by early 2026 Pushed to mid-2026, a 6-month delay |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Full year 2025 EBITDA target range of $70-85M Q1 run rate of $57M annually, needs acceleration to hit low end |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Returning to positive cash flows in 2025 Q1 showed cash burn of $10.8M, needs dramatic improvement to deliver |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Natural gas project PUC approval $246M project received full notice to proceed |
| Q4'24 | Missed | 40-50% FEED study conversion rate Same 12-15 FEED studies as Q3, zero conversions mentioned |
| Q4'24 | Missed | $105-115M EBITDA guidance for 2024 Came in at $68.9M, missed by ~$40M even after adjustments |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Massillon producing hydrogen by early 2026 Maintained timeline but dropped 'commercial operations Q2 2026' language |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Target of over $30M in annualized cost savings Reached $26.5M then stopped reporting. Missed by at least $3.5M. |
| Q4'24 | Missed | West Virginia $10M funding to be signed 'in coming days' Completely disappeared from narrative. Deal clearly fell through. |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: 'One or two carbon capture projects in 2024' Still saying 'we fully anticipate' but no specifics yet |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: 'Civil works to be executed in the spring of 2025' for Wyoming Reiterated this quarter, still on track |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: '2024 adjusted EBITDA target of $100-110 million' Raised to $105-115M, but Q1 run-rate of $53M annually is way below |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: 'Realize our expected annualized cost savings target of over $30 million' Only at $20M through Q1, $1M progress in quarter |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: 'Bookings in 2024 will be one of the highest in recent history' Q1 implied bookings of $506M is strong start, nearly double prior year |
| Q1'24 | Delivered | Q4: 'We expect to announce a large gas conversion project on Monday morning' Presumably announced as promised given confident tone |
| Q1'24 | Pending | Q4: '2024 will prove to be a very strong year for Babcock and Wilcox' Q1 revenue down 14% YoY, not a strong start |
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