| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 7, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 4 medium flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Dan Amos's informal Japan sales target of 'closer to JPY 80 billion' for FY2026 FY not ended; reaffirmed this quarter with softer, more hedged language, 'remains in the realm of possibilities'. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Corporate & Other segment expected to be 'slightly negative' in pretax earnings for Q2 Actual Q2 result was a $10 million pretax adjusted loss, consistent with the 'slightly negative' characterization given last quarter. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Japan benefit ratio FY2026 guidance range of 60%-63% FY not yet ended; management revised expected positioning to the high end of the unchanged range this quarter rather than missing or beating it. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Target 10% of Japan in-force to Bermuda reinsurance Currently at 6%, making progress with external deals |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue dividend increases - 43 consecutive years Q1 2026 dividend increased 5.2% maintaining streak |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | U.S. net earned premium growth at lower end of 3%-6% range Q1 at +3.5% tracking to guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Japan underlying earned premiums decline 1%-2% in 2026 Q1 at -1.3% within guidance range |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | U.S. benefit ratio 48%-52% range for 2026 Q1 at 47.2% came in below range, better than expected |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Japan benefit ratio 60%-63% range for 2026 Q1 at 62.9% within range but at higher end, guidance maintained |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to scale new business lines in U.S. Group life/disability up 11.3%, network dental up 48.8%, direct-to-consumer up 10.5% |
| Q4'25 | Missed | U.S. pretax margin at upper end of 17% to 20% range for 2025 Q4 margin of 17.4% was at bottom of range, not upper end as guided |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | U.S. benefit ratio at lower end of 48% to 52% range for 2025 Q4 benefit ratio 48.6% was indeed at lower end of range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Japan pretax profit margin in 35% to 38% range for 2025 Q4 margin of 31.3% was below range but full year likely within guidance |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Expense ratio at lower end of 20% to 23% range for Japan 2025 Q4 expense ratio was 22%, right in the middle but called 'lower end' achievement |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Benefit ratio in Japan will be in the 58% to 60% range for 2025 Q4 came in at 65% which was within updated guidance range after Q3 actuarial unlock |
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