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Management credibility scorecard

Airbnb (ABNB)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 6, 2026
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100%
Kept of 14 resolved
14
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
4
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · reducer

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 6, 20267/121 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags40Call sheet →
Q1'26May 7, 202610/125 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25February 12, 20269/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26DeliveredWorld Cup expected to host more guests than any event in Airbnb's history
Management confirms Airbnb 'hosted millions of people during the tournament' with over 150,000 homes listed for the first time, consistent with claims of a record event, though no direct guest-count comparison versus prior events was given.
Q2'26DeliveredExpect AI-driven customer support cost declines to continue 'this year'
Customer support cost per booking fell 16% YoY in Q2 versus 10% in Q1, consistent with the guided improving trend.
Q2'26PendingFY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guided to 'at least 35%'
Full year not complete; raised again this quarter to 'at least 35.5%.'
Q2'26PendingFY2026 revenue growth guided to low-to-mid teens
Full year not yet complete; guidance was revised upward again this quarter to 'at least mid-teens,' a positive revision, not a delivered full-year result.
Q2'26ExceededQ2 nights/seats booked growth expected to 'decelerate slightly' from Q1's 9%
Nights and seats booked grew 10% YoY in Q2, explicitly described as accelerating from Q1 rather than decelerating.
Q2'26ExceededQ2 revenue guidance of $3.54B-$3.6B, 14%-16% YoY
Actual Q2 revenue came in at $3.6B, +17% YoY, above the top end of the guided range.
Q1'26DeliveredShare more about hotel approach later this year
Provided detailed strategy, mentioned May 20 launch will have updates
Q1'26PendingAI customer support to roll out globally
Still North America focused, global rollout timeline unclear
Q1'26DeliveredContinue migrating hosts to single service fee
Over 25% of listings now migrated, testing expansion to more hosts
Q1'26DeliveredRoll out Reserve Now Pay Later to more markets
Expanded globally in Q1, now 20% of global GBV vs US-only launch
Q1'26DeliveredEBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year
Maintained at 'at least 35%' for 2026, exactly as promised
Q1'26ExceededRevenue growth to accelerate to low double digits in 2026
Delivered and raised guidance to 'low to mid-teens' - clear outperformance
Q4'25ExceededInternational expansion acceleration in key markets
Brazil moved from top 10 to top 5 market, India grew 50% in Q4
Q4'25DeliveredHotels pilot in LA, NYC, and Madrid
Pilots active with over 100 hotels in NYC alone
Q4'25PendingServices and experiences providing material growth impact
Timeline pushed to 3-5 years for material contribution
Q4'25DeliveredAI customer support expansion beyond U.S.
Now covers North America, expanding to 50+ languages in 2026
Q4'25Delivered65 major improvements to the platform since May 2025
Specific improvement count provided as promised
Q4'25DeliveredReserve Now Pay Later launch in U.S. during Q3 2025
Launched successfully with 70% adoption rate among eligible users
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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