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Call sheet · Q2'26

Xcel Energy (XEL)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 30, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market will focus on data center delays, but the real story is XEL just proved they can beat independent power producers at their own game, winning 70% of a competitive RFP in Texas/New Mexico worth $6B. Yes, data center timelines are slipping into the 2030s (the binding constraint is transmission, not demand), but management has quietly assembled $13B of incremental opportunities while guiding to only $10B+. The Minnesota ALJ recommendation of 9.8% ROE came suspiciously late ('late yesterday'), limiting their ability to manage the narrative. Most revealing quote: 'They may energize by the end of the decade, but when they ramp, it's going to be well into the 2030s,' essentially admitting data center revenues are 4+ years out. My view changes if they sign zero incremental data center ESAs by year-end, which would suggest execution issues rather than timing conservatism.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: XEL just won 70% of a Texas/New Mexico RFP worth $6B, proving their regulated generation team can beat IPPs at their own game
  • The obvious: Data center pipeline remains robust at 20+ GW, but execution timeline slipping
  • The red flag: Minnesota ALJ's 9.8% ROE recommendation came in late yesterday, conveniently after ER prep

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Ongoing EPS$0.91 (8.3% YoY)$0.93 (24.0% YoY)+1,570 bps YoY acceleration
Electric Revenue Growth (Non-fuel)$0.23/share contribution$0.17/share contributionDecelerating revenue quality
AFUDC$0.10/share$0.08/share20% sequential decline
Weather Impact-$0.09/share headwindOffset by venture gainsWeather neutralized YTD
Weather-Adjusted Electric Sales+2.8%+2.1% YTD70 bps deceleration
Interest Expense Impact-$0.18/share-$0.12/shareImprovement but still dilutive
Line of Sight to Incremental CapEx$7B+$10B+ (really $13B)+86% increase in 90 days
Equity Financing Completed50% of $7B need85% of $7B need+35 percentage points
Rate Base Growth (implied)11%+ through 2030Double digits well into 2030sExtended duration
EPS Growth Guidance9% average through 20309%+ average through 2030Added the plus sign

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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