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Call sheet · Q4'25

Sempra (SRE)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 26, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Sempra morphing into America's AI infrastructure backbone through Oncor's data center dominance, with 273 GW of queue requests and $3.5B in customer collateral proving this isn't speculative. The obvious headline is the record $65B capital plan, but the real insight is 70% is bulletproof transmission spend with regulatory approval already locked in - this isn't hope, it's contracted growth. The binding constraint isn't demand or capital, it's execution speed on getting transmission built to serve the load tsunami. Martin's most revealing quote: 'largest opportunity in the United States for data centers centers on Texas, and in the Texas region, the largest opportunity sits in the footprint at Oncor.' My view changes if the Texas rate case settlement gets delayed or watered down, or if ERCOT changes interconnection rules that strand the data center queue.

The 30-second version

  • The real story is Oncor becoming an AI/data center infrastructure play disguised as transmission
  • Record $65B capital plan is bulletproof transmission spend, not speculative data center bets
  • California going from growth engine to cash cow, but they're not admitting the strategic shift

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Adjusted EPS 2025$4.65$4.69Hit high end of guidance range
Base Capital Plan 2026-2030$56B (Sempra total)$65B+17% increase, record plan
Oncor Capital Plan$36B$47.5B+32% increase, mostly transmission
Rate Base Growth CAGRNot disclosed11% through 2030Industry-leading growth rate
Oncor Rate Base CAGRNot disclosed18% through 2030Remarkable growth trajectory
Regulated Earnings MixNot disclosed95% by 2027Pure-play utility transformation
Customer Collateral at Oncor$2.7B (Q3)$3.5B+$800M in one quarter
Data Center Queue at Oncor226 GW (Q3)273 GW+47 GW or +21% in one quarter
Operating Cash Flows (5-year)Not disclosed+$5B improvement vs prior planMassive cash generation upgrade
2030 EPS OutlookNo guidance$6.70-$7.50New long-term visibility

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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