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Call sheet · Q1'26

Sempra (SRE)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 7, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Oncor's transmission monopoly positioning for the AI buildout-their 289 GW queue represents the largest concentration of AI-related demand in the US, but the base $47.5B plan is bulletproof regardless of data center realization rates. Management delivered on major promises (rate case settlement, transaction approvals) while the 127 GW of substantiated load backed by $3.5B in collateral provides unprecedented pipeline quality. The binding constraint is now supply chain and regulatory approvals for the $9B incremental bucket, not demand or financing. Martin's quote captures it: 'This is a plan upon Texas' economic activity and the need to build the superhighway of high-voltage transmission.' My view changes if they can't firm up significant portions of the incremental bucket by the August call or if the KKR deal hits unexpected delays.

The 30-second version

  • Texas data center queue exploded to 289 GW but Oncor's base plan is bulletproof-70% transmission regardless of AI hype
  • KKR deal closing creates $10B+ balance sheet fortress but rating agencies want 'closing plus six months'
  • California wildfire liability fix gaining legislative momentum but still no concrete timeline

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Adjusted EPS$1.44 Q1 2025$1.51 Q1 2026+4.9% YoY growth
GAAP EPS$1.39 Q1 2025$1.58 Q1 2026+13.7% YoY acceleration
Capital Deployment$13B full year 2025$3B in Q1 aloneRecord pace, on track for annual target
Oncor Large Load Queue226 GW Q4 2025289 GW Q1 2026+63 GW in one quarter
Oncor Data Center Queue210 GW Q4 2025271 GW Q1 2026+61 GW surge
Oncor RTP Qualifying Load38 GW 'high confidence'127 GW substantiated load+234% expansion in qualified pipeline
Oncor Authorized ROESub-8% earned9.75% authorized175+ bps improvement approved
Oncor Equity LayerPrevious structure43.5% authorizedSignificant capital structure upgrade
Sempra Texas EarningsPrior year base+$25M higherUTM and invested capital driving growth
Sempra California EarningsPrior year base+$44M higherHigher CPUC base margin offset by tax timing

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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