Simon Property Group (SPG)

The sleeper story is the Saks bankruptcy creating a massive value unlock - SPG wrote off $100M but gained IP rights, buildings, and development freedom that David called being 'ahead of the game.' While everyone focuses on the solid TRG integration (delivering exactly as promised with 250bps rent growth boost), the real opportunity is re-leasing Saks space at nearly double the rent. Yes, tariffs are creating real retailer pressure that David explicitly warned will cause more bankruptcies, but SPG's leasing pipeline is up 15% like-for-like. The binding constraint isn't demand - it's converting that Simon Plus loyalty program from 'early days' marketing speak into actual revenue. My view changes if Simon Plus shows no measurable conversion metrics by Q2 or if Vegas tourist weakness spreads to other major markets.