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Call sheet · Q4'26

SanDisk (SNDK)

Q4'26 earnings call · held August 5, 2026 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market will focus on the headline record revenue and margins, but the real driver is the **quiet build‑out of QLC Stargate and the deepening of NBMs**, which lock in future cash but also inflate Q4 cash flow with prepayments. The binding constraint is the **capex required for BICS‑8/10 transitions and the growing inventory needed to support multi‑year contracts**, which will pressure free cash flow and margins in FY27. Management’s shift from "extraordinary pricing acceleration" to "early innings" on AI is a red flag on short‑term pricing power. My view changes if QLC Stargate volumes lag expectations or if NBMs’ variable pricing floor proves lower than spot market, eroding the projected margin cushion.

The 30-second version

  • Sleeper story: QLC Stargate revenue is the hidden growth engine
  • Obvious headline - record revenue and margins - but the real story is pricing vs volume
  • Risk: disappearance of bid‑shipment volume guidance and new “RPO” metric without a denominator

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Revenue$5,950M (+97% QoQ, +251% YoY)$8,965M (+51% QoQ, +372% YoY)+$3.0B YoY acceleration
Non‑GAAP EPS$23.41$39.25+$15.84
Data Center Revenue$1,467M (+233% QoQ)$2,977M (+103% QoQ)+$1.5B, growth slowing from 233% to 103%
Edge Revenue$3,663M (+118% QoQ)$5,432M (+48% QoQ)+$1.8B, growth decelerating
Consumer Revenue$820M (-10% QoQ)$556M (-32% QoQ)-$264M, steep decline
Non‑GAAP Gross Margin78.4%84.6%+6.2 pts
Operating Expenses % of Rev7.5%5.4%-2.1 pts, operating leverage
Operating Margin70.9%79.2%+8.3 pts
Cash Flow from Operations$3,038M$7,126M+$4.1B, driven by NBM prepayments
Adjusted Free Cash Flow$2,955M (49.7% margin)$5,035M (56% margin)+$2.08B, margin expansion

Accountability tracked

1 new promise made1 narrative shift flagged
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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