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Call sheet · Q2'26

SanDisk (SNDK)

Q2'26 earnings call · held January 29, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is NAND transitioning from commodity to contracted business with hyperscalers asking for 2029-2030 commitments, fundamentally changing industry economics. The 66% gross margin guide grabs headlines but masks that they've stopped disclosing the metrics they were proud of last quarter (BiCS8 mix, inventory days, enterprise percentages), classic behavior when momentum slows. The binding constraint isn't demand but their unwillingness to add capacity without prepayments, capping upside. Most revealing quote: 'Any material increase in capital deployment would require high confidence that demand at attractive pricing levels is durable over several-year horizon with financial commitments.' My view changes if they announce multiple LTAs covering >30% of 2027 capacity at 50%+ gross margins.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: NAND is quietly becoming a multi-year contracted business like GPUs
  • The obvious 66% gross margin guide is masking a massive pricing reset
  • The red flag: They stopped disclosing exact enterprise SSD bit percentage after touting it last quarter

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$2.31B (up 23% YoY)$3.03B (up 61% YoY)+31% sequential acceleration
Non-GAAP EPS$1.22$6.205x sequential surge
Non-GAAP Gross Margin29.9%51.1%+2,120 bps explosion
Data Center Revenue$269M$440M+64% sequential, now 15% of total
Edge Revenue$1.39B$1.68B+21% sequential growth
Consumer Revenue$652M$907M+39% sequential surge
Operating Cash Flow$488M$1,019M+109% sequential
Adjusted Free Cash Flow$448M (19.4% margin)$843M (27.9% margin)+88% with 850 bps margin expansion
Net Cash Position$91M$936M+$845M improvement
Inventory Days115 daysNot disclosedMetric disappeared

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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