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Call sheet · Q4'25

Restaurant Brands International (QSR)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 12, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is International becoming a cash-generating machine with five billion-dollar BK markets and Popeyes doubling international sales to $1.7B in two years, while everyone fixates on US turnarounds. The obvious headline is solid Q4 execution, but the binding constraint is franchisee cash flow from beef inflation that's forcing them to slow remodel pace despite momentum. Most revealing quote was Josh hedging on the 2028 modern image target: 'the current cost environment is influencing the pace of remodel activity, and as a result, will take a bit longer' - that's a material timeline slip. My view changes if beef costs don't normalize by mid-2026 or if Popeyes same-store sales don't inflect positive by Q2, as both would signal deeper structural issues beyond cyclical headwinds.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: International is becoming a margin machine with 5 billion-dollar businesses while everyone obsesses over US turnarounds
  • BK US momentum building but beef inflation created a franchisee profitability setback that could derail remodel pace
  • Popeyes leadership change signals deeper operational breakdown than management admits

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
System-wide Sales Growth6.9% in Q35.3% in Q4-160 bps deceleration
Comparable Sales4.0% in Q32.4% in Q4-160 bps slowdown
Net Restaurant Growth2.8% in Q32.9% full yearStable at trough levels
Organic AOI Growth8.8% in Q38.3% full yearThird consecutive year of ~8%
Tim Hortons Canada Comps4.2% in Q32.8% in Q4-140 bps deceleration
International Comps6.5% in Q36.1% in Q4Accelerated for full year to 4.9%
Burger King US Comps3.2% in Q32.6% in Q4-60 bps but outperformed category
Popeyes US Comps-2.0% in Q3Q4 not disclosedFull year -3.2%, deteriorating
BK US Franchisee Profitability~$205K in 2024$185K in 2025-$20K decline entirely from beef costs
Free Cash Flow$566M in Q3Nearly $1.6B full yearStrong cash generation

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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