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Call sheet · Q3'25

Restaurant Brands International (QSR)

Q3'25 earnings call · held October 30, 2025 · compared with the Q2'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is BK China - management turned around a broken $1B market and now claims they're ahead of expectations while shopping it to partners. This isn't a distressed asset anymore. The obvious headline is solid results across most segments, but the binding constraint is beef costs hitting franchisee economics just as momentum builds in the US. Josh's admission that 'October has started out a bit choppier' after quarters of outperformance suggests the commodity pressure is biting. Most revealing quote: Sami saying they're 'mindful of the commodity cycle and impacts on profitability as we manage future remodel schedules' - translation, they're tapping the brakes on growth investments. My view changes if October's choppiness extends into November or if they provide a BK China sale timeline.

The 30-second version

  • BK China turned positive SSS in Q2, accelerated to +10.5% in Q3 despite being 'held for sale'
  • Beef inflation hitting mid-single digits on total commodity basket, but October trends 'choppier'
  • Popeyes admits repeat visitation 'fell short' and stops talking about specific sales drivers

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'25Q3'25Change
System-wide sales growth5.3% (Q2 2025)6.9% (Q3 2025)+160 bps acceleration
Organic AOI growth5.7% (Q2 2025)8.8% (Q3 2025)+310 bps acceleration
Tim Hortons Canada comp sales3.6% (Q2 2025)4.2% (Q3 2025)+60 bps acceleration
BK International comp sales4.2% (Q2 2025)6.5% (Q3 2025)+230 bps acceleration
BK US comp sales1.5% (Q2 2025)3.2% (Q3 2025)+170 bps acceleration
Popeyes US comp sales-0.9% (Q2 2025)-2.0% (Q3 2025)110 bps deterioration
Free cash flow$446M (Q2 2025)$566M (Q3 2025)+$120M improvement
Adjusted EPS$0.94 (Q2 2025)$1.03 (Q3 2025)+9.6% growth
Net leverage ratio4.6x (Q2 2025)4.4x (Q3 2025)20 bps deleveraging
Segment G&A reduction$15M reduction (Q2 2025)$8M reduction (Q3 2025)Decelerated cost cutting

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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