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Call sheet · Q1'26

Restaurant Brands International (QSR)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 6, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is BK China - CPE's $350M capital injection and immediate double-digit comps could be the catalyst that gets RBI back to 5%+ unit growth, but the royalty rate discount creates near-term revenue headwind. The obvious headline is BK US momentum at nearly 6% comps, but the real constraint is beef inflation extending into 2027 rather than normalizing this year, pressuring franchisee economics when they need to fund remodels. Josh's confidence is telling: 'Marketing amplifies the truth, and we've built a much better version of Burger King.' My view changes if beef costs don't normalize by mid-2027 or if Popeyes misses the second-half recovery timeline again - another delay would signal deeper structural issues.

The 30-second version

  • Burger King China joint venture is the real story everyone's missing
  • BK US momentum looks sustainable, but beef inflation creates profit headwind
  • Popeyes recovery timeline just got pushed out again

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Total System-Wide Sales Growth5.3% (Q4: 6.2%)6.2% (Q1)80 bps sequential acceleration
Comparable Sales Growth2.4% FY25 (Q4: 3.1%)3.2% (Q1)Cleared 3% algorithm threshold
Organic AOI Growth8.3% FY2510.7% (Q1)240 bps above algorithm
Adjusted EPS$0.75 Q1'25$0.86 Q1'2614.6% nominal growth
BK US Comparable Sales2.6% (Q4'25)5.8% (Q1'26)320 bps acceleration
Tim Hortons Canada Comps2.8% (Q4'25)1.5% (Q1'26)130 bps deceleration
International Comparable Sales6.1% (Q4'25)5.7% (Q1'26)40 bps softening but still strong
Popeyes US Comparable Sales-3.2% FY25-6.5% (Q1'26)330 bps deterioration
Free Cash Flow$1.6B FY25$200M (Q1)Strong quarterly start
Net Restaurant Growth2.9% FY252.6% (Q1)Expected seasonal low point

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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