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Call sheet · Q4'25

Prologis (PLD)

Q4'25 earnings call · held January 21, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is power infrastructure, not demand - Prologis has moved from land owner to utility partner, with 5.7 GW representing years of utility negotiations that competitors can't replicate. The obvious headline is data center momentum, but the real story is how they're burying industrial weakness inside the combined development guidance. The binding constraint is now utility delivery timelines, not capital or customer demand, which makes this infrastructure play, not a tech speculation. As Dan Letter said, 'power will be the constraint going forward, not capital.' My view changes if they can't convert the 1.2 GW LOI pipeline to signed leases by mid-2026.

The 30-second version

  • Data center power pipeline hits 5.7 gigawatts with 1.2 GW in LOI - the real inflection is happening in utilities, not just demand
  • Build-to-suit dominance at 61% of starts signals Prologis is becoming the logistics developer of record for hyperscalers
  • First-time aggregation of warehouse and data center development guidance obscures industrial weakness

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Core FFO (ex-promote)$1.50 Q3$1.46 Q44 cent sequential decline despite year-end
Net Effective Rent Change49% Q344% Q4500 bps deceleration
Lease Mark-to-Market19% Q318% Q4100 bps compression
Occupancy (period-end)95.3% Q395.8% Q450 bps improvement
Same-Store NOI (Net Effective)3.9% Q34.7% Q480 bps acceleration
Development StartsLight Q3$1.1B Q4Strong finish, 48% build-to-suit
Data Center Power Pipeline5.2 GW Q35.7 GW Q4500 MW quarterly addition
Power in LOI StageNot disclosed Q31.2 GW Q4First-time disclosure
Build-to-Suit Mix67% Q361% full yearSustained above-target levels
Solar Capacity825 MW Q31.1 GW Q4Exceeded 1 GW goal

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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