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Call sheet · Q1'26

Newmont (NEM)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 23, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: while markets focus on Cadia's 5-week earthquake downtime, NEM is locked in a deteriorating dispute with Barrick over Nevada Gold Mines ($1.4B annual production) that could reshape the company. The record $3.1B free cash flow masks operational warning signs - they're burning stockpiles at multiple sites, refused to disclose stockpile grades, and kept production guidance flat despite Q1 beats. The binding constraint isn't earthquakes or oil prices, it's reserve replacement - they're consuming inventory faster than they're finding it. Natascha's most telling quote: 'We will have to come back to you' when asked about Cadia grades they should know cold. My view changes if they provide transparent stockpile economics and resolve the Nevada partnership within 90 days.

The 30-second version

  • The Cadia earthquake is the sleeper distraction hiding their real problem: Nevada Gold Mines
  • Record free cash flow ($3.1B) masks deteriorating operational fundamentals
  • Cost inflation is hitting harder than they're admitting

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Gold Production1.4M oz (Q4 2025)1.3M oz (Q1 2026)Down 7% QoQ despite guidance maintenance
Free Cash Flow$2.8B (Q4 2025)$3.1B (Q1 2026)All-time quarterly record, +11% QoQ
Cash Flow from OperationsNot disclosed Q4$3.8B after working capital (Q1 2026)Record level despite seasonal headwinds
All-in Sustaining Costs$1,680/oz guided (byproduct basis)$1,029/oz actual Q1 (byproduct)Beat guidance by $651/oz
Sustaining Capital$1.95B guided for 2026$381M spent Q1On track, seasonal timing as expected
Development Capital$1.4B guided for 2026$239M spent Q1Below run-rate, back-half weighted
Share Repurchases$2.4B remaining authorization$2.4B completed, $6B new authorizationFully exhausted program, doubled authorization
Silver ProductionNot specified Q49M oz Q1Third-largest silver producer globally
Copper ProductionNot specified Q450K tonnes Q1Supporting byproduct cost profile
Dividend$0.26/share Q4$0.26/share Q1Maintained at $1.1B annual run-rate

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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