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Call sheet · Q2'26

Modine Manufacturing (MOD)

Q2'26 earnings call · held October 29, 2025 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that Modine just hired an army of 1,200 workers who are sitting around waiting for factories to open, creating a $10-12M quarterly cash burn that nobody's modeling correctly. Yes, data center demand is real and the $2B target by FY28 looks achievable, but they're building 60% more capacity than needed while margins collapse and they've stopped telling us the backlog number. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's their ability to execute this massive operational transition without blowing up the P&L, as evidenced by the CEO admitting 'we try to do something a little bit different...and it was costly.' My view changes if Q4 margins actually normalize above 20% as promised, proving they can scale efficiently.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: 1,200 new hires with no revenue to show for it is crushing margins NOW but sets up a monster Q4
  • The obvious: Data center revenue guide raised to 60%+ growth, path to $2B by FY28
  • The red flag: They stopped disclosing data center order book specifics while claiming 'highest backlog ever'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Total Revenue$680.9M (+3% YoY)$699.9M (+12% YoY)+900bps YoY acceleration
Adjusted EPS$1.06 (+2% YoY)$1.06 (+9% YoY)Flat sequentially despite revenue growth
Climate Solutions Revenue$371M (+11% YoY)$411M (+24% YoY)+1300bps growth acceleration
Climate Solutions EBITDA Margin20.0%17.6%-240bps sequential deterioration
Performance Tech Revenue$310M (-8% YoY)$289M (-4% YoY)Decay rate improving
Performance Tech EBITDA Margin13.1%14.7%+160bps despite volume headwinds
Data Center Revenue Growth+15% YoY+42% YoY+2700bps acceleration
Free Cash Flow$0.2M-$30MTurned deeply negative
Net Debt$403M$498M+$95M in one quarter
Leverage Ratio1.0x1.2x+20bps despite earnings growth

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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