Eli Lilly (LLY)

The market is missing the Foundeo prescriber explosion - a 350% jump that will fuel obesity volume once the brand gains traction. The headline 48% revenue surge still masks a pricing squeeze (U.S. price down 3%/9% strip‑adjusted) and a reliance on mix to sustain margins. The binding constraint is pricing power in the U.S. GLP‑1 market and the need to convert prescribers into repeat fills, especially as Medicare Bridge expands but still covers only 20 m patients. Management says the launch is “still early” and “inflection point” is just arriving - my view changes if the prescriber‑to‑prescription conversion stays below 30% or if Bridge enrollment lags expectations.