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Call sheet · Q1'26

HubSpot (HUBS)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 7, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: HubSpot deliberately chose margin expansion over growth acceleration and threw sand in their own sales gears to retrain reps on AI. They beat Q1 by $18M but only raised full-year guide by 40bps - that's not confidence, that's capital discipline. The AI monetization is real (credits up 67% QoQ, Customer Agent at 70% resolution rates) but they broke their 6-quarter streak of net new ARR growth exceeding revenue growth. Kate's quote says it all: 'Q1 net new ARR growth was a bit below constant currency revenue growth' - the first time this happened since they started reporting it. The binding constraint isn't demand or product - it's their own conservative guidance philosophy and willingness to disrupt sales for product transitions. My view changes if Q2 net new ARR doesn't recover above revenue growth or if the sales motion 'normalization' extends beyond Q2.

The 30-second version

  • AI monetization hit a ceiling: Credits are real but management just threw sand in their own gears
  • The upmarket story is intact but they're managing growth DOWN, not up
  • Net new ARR growth fell BELOW revenue growth for first time in 6+ quarters

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Revenue$825M (+20% YoY)$912M (+23% YoY)+300bps acceleration
Revenue (Constant Currency)+18.2% YoY+18.2% YoYFlat growth rate
Non-GAAP Operating Margin22.6%17.8%-480bps but +400bps YoY
Customer Count288K (+16% YoY)300K (+16% YoY)Steady growth, hit milestone
Net Customer Additions9.8K10.8K+1K above target range
ASRPC$11.7K (+1pt CC)$11.7K (+2pts CC)+1pt improvement
Net Revenue Retention105%103%-200bps sequential, +50bps YoY
Deals >$60K ARRNot disclosed+37% YoYStrong upmarket momentum
Deals >$120K ARRNot disclosed+64% YoYAccelerating large deals
Multi-Hub Pro Plus New Customers62%63%+100bps

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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