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Call sheet · Q4'25

HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)

Q4'25 earnings call · held June 26, 2025 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
5 high, 3 medium flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Toronto: HIVE just made their biggest HPC bet ever but won't tell you what they paid, suggesting either competitive paranoia or buyer's remorse. The Street sees 25 exahash scaling, but Paraguay power pricing uncertainty through 2027 could torpedo the economics. The binding constraint isn't hashrate growth, it's the $64M annual depreciation burden that guarantees GAAP losses regardless of Bitcoin price. Aydin's tell: 'Things are in a holding pattern until 2027' on Paraguay regulation, the first crack in the expansion narrative. My view changes if they actually disclose Toronto's price and it's under $5M/MW, proving they got a deal rather than overpaid in desperation.

The 30-second version

  • The Toronto HPC acquisition is the real story: 3.5x capacity expansion for AI but mysteriously no price disclosed
  • 25 exahash by Thanksgiving looks great on paper, but Paraguay power pricing uncertainty through 2027 is the hidden risk
  • GAAP transition reveals $64M depreciation bomb nobody's talking about

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$29.2M (Q3)$31.2M (Q4)+6.8% QoQ but -15.4% YoY
Gross Operating Margin$6.1M/21% (Q3)$8.8M/28% (Q4)+44% QoQ improvement
Adjusted EBITDA$17.3M (Q3)$56.2M (Full Year)Annualized run rate doubled
Bitcoin Mined322 BTC (Q3)1,414 BTC (Full Year)Mining 5.5 BTC daily at 11.5EH
Hash Rate6 EH (Q3)11.5 EH (June)+92% in 6 months
HPC Revenue ARR$10M (Q3)$20M (May)Doubled in one quarter
Bitcoin Holdings2,805 BTC (Q3)610 BTC (Q4)-78% balance sheet depletion
Cash Position$9.8M (Q3)$23.4M (Q4)+139% QoQ but still minimal
Net Loss Per Share$0.01 profit (Q3)$0.34 loss (Q4)Swung to massive loss
Depreciation (GAAP)Not disclosed under IFRS$64M annuallyNew disclosure reveals huge non-cash drag

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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