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Call sheet · Q2'25

HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)

Q2'25 earnings call · held November 13, 2024 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Paraguay's $22,000 Bitcoin production cost, which would generate 73% gross margins and make HIVE the lowest-cost producer globally, but they're sitting on just $7.2M cash with no clear funding path. The market sees Bitcoin at $86k saving the sector; I see mining margins compressed to 5% revealing that even efficient miners are barely surviving the 90 trillion difficulty environment. The binding constraint isn't hash rate or AI pivots; it's that they need $100M+ in capital while bleeding cash, forcing either massive dilution or asset sales. Aydin admitted 'we don't control the demand' on AI after missing H2 targets. My view changes if they secure non-dilutive Paraguay funding or Bitcoin breaks $100k sustainably.

The 30-second version

  • Paraguay is the real story: $22k BTC production cost changes everything
  • Bitcoin at $86k but margins compressed to 5%: the halving hit harder than expected
  • AI revenue mysteriously flat at $10M run rate despite 'resurgence' claim

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Total Revenue$32.2M (up 28% YoY)$22.6M (down 1% YoY)-30% sequential collapse
Bitcoin Mining Revenue$29.6M$20.8M-30% sequential decline
HPC/AI Revenue$2.6M ($10.4M annualized)$1.9M ($7.6M annualized)-27% sequential drop
Gross Mining Margin$11.4M (35%)$1.1M (5%)-3000 bps margin compression
Adjusted EBITDA$14.9M$5.6M-62% sequential decline
Net Income (Loss)$3.3M profit($7.7M) loss$11M swing to loss
EPS$0.03($0.06)Flipped to loss
Bitcoin Mined449 BTC340 BTC-24% production decline
Hash Rate (operational)5.5 EH installed5.2 EH operatingQuietly reduced operations
Bitcoin HODL2,533 BTC ($153.9M)2,624 BTC ($165.2M)+91 BTC accumulated

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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