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Call sheet · Q1'26

Halliburton (HAL)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 21, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is North America equipment tightness happening in real-time - Miller's exact words 'white space is now gone' and 'within a handful of fleets of being sold out' are concrete signposts the market is missing while focused on the obvious Middle East headlines. The Middle East conflict created near-term pain ($0.07-$0.09 Q2 hit) but Miller believes this makes oil 'fundamentally tighter' for years, with cumulative deficits approaching 'a billion barrels.' However, the binding constraint is cash generation quality - operating cash flow collapsed 77% to $273M with management offering zero explanation, which is highly unusual for HAL and suggests either working capital deterioration or collection problems. My view changes if they can explain the cash flow decline as purely timing-related and demonstrate North America pricing actually improves rather than just having 'constructive conversations.'

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: North America recovery is already here, just invisible to the market
  • Middle East conflict created a $0.07-$0.09 per share Q2 hit, but Miller believes this makes oil 'fundamentally tighter' long-term
  • Cash flow quality deteriorated significantly with no explanation

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Total Revenue$5.7B (flat vs Q3)$5.4B (-5% QoQ, flat YoY)Modest sequential decline
Operating Margin15% adjusted13%-200 bps margin compression
EPS$0.70 adjusted$0.55-21% sequential decline
Operating Cash Flow$1.2B (strong Q4)$273M-77% collapse QoQ
Free Cash Flow$875M$123M-86% sequential plunge
Share Repurchases$250M$100M-60% reduction in buybacks
International Revenue$3.9B (up 7% QoQ)$3.3B (+3% YoY)Growth deceleration
North America Revenue$2.2B (-7% QoQ)$2.1B (-4% YoY)Decline moderating
Latin America Revenue$1.1B (+7% QoQ)$1.1B (+22% YoY)+22% YoY acceleration
Middle East Revenue$1.5B (+3% QoQ)$1.3B (-13% YoY)Conflict-driven decline

Accountability tracked

9 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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