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Call sheet · Q4'25

Expedia Group (EXPE)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 12, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is B2B margin compression - they're burning 500bps of margin to buy 24% revenue growth, and Scott admitted more pressure ahead. Everyone sees the growth, few are modeling the margin destruction. The obvious headline is beats and raises, but the real constraint is marketing leverage sustainability - Scott's hedge on competitive pressure reveals this isn't a structural improvement. Ariane's quote crystallizes the AI reality: 'we're testing ads below the AI response' - they went from billions of monetizable queries to testing basic ad placement. My view changes if Q1 B2B margins stabilize above 25% or if they quantify AI revenue contribution beyond testing.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: B2B has become a margin compression machine disguised as a growth engine
  • Marketing leverage party is ending just as competitive pressure mounts
  • AI monetization went from 'billions of queries' to 'we're testing ads below the AI response'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$4.4B (+9% YoY Q3)$3.5B (+11% YoY Q4)200bps acceleration despite sequential decline
Bookings Growth12% YoY Q311% YoY Q4100bps deceleration
EBITDA Margin33% Q324% Q4900bps sequential compression
B2C Marketing Leverage50bps leverage Q350bps leverage Q4Flat, but guidance suggests peak efficiency reached
B2B Revenue Growth18% YoY Q324% YoY Q4600bps acceleration
B2B EBITDA Margins29% Q324% Q4500bps compression
Free Cash Flow$3.0B trailing twelve months Q3$3.1B full year 2025Modest improvement
Advertising Revenue Growth16% YoY Q319% YoY Q4300bps acceleration
Room Nights Growth11% YoY Q39% YoY Q4200bps deceleration
Supply GrowthNot disclosed Q310% property count growth Q4New disclosure, strong number

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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