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Call sheet · Q2'26

Expedia Group (EXPE)

Q2'26 earnings call · held August 5, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
5 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is engagement, not bookings: active loyalty member growth quietly decelerated from mid-single digits to low-single digits even as headline bookings grew 12%, and the once heavily-promoted Uber partnership got reduced to 'we don't comment on individual partners... not going to be material to our guidance'. The obvious headline is a fifth straight beat-and-raise (bookings +12%, revenue +14%, EBITDA +23%), but B2B quietly dropped its exact growth rate (22% last quarter) for a vaguer 'double-digit' descriptor, and FX added nearly a point to bookings and four points to revenue. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's capital discipline and integration bandwidth: buybacks fell from $700M to $200M in a single quarter just as Expedia layered on two new acquisitions (CarTrawler, Layla) with zero disclosed terms, and the brand-new CFO admitted he's 'personally unfamiliar' with the Vrbo ad business he now oversees. Watch the loyalty member growth line and the B2B percentage disclosure, both are quietly softening under a headline that says everything is fine. My view changes if next quarter management restores exact B2B growth percentages and loyalty member growth reaccelerates; if both stay vague, this is a quality-of-growth story masquerading as a momentum story.

The 30-second version

  • Loyalty engagement is quietly decelerating while bookings headline accelerates
  • Fifth straight beat-and-raise, but the growth composition got murkier
  • Capital return pace cut in half right as two undisclosed acquisitions land

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Gross bookings growth (YoY)13%12%-100bps deceleration despite FY guide raise
Revenue growth (YoY)15%14%-100bps deceleration
YoY EBITDA margin expansion~6 points~2 pointsPace of margin expansion cut by two-thirds YoY
Adjusted EPS growth (YoY)approximately 4x+36%Normalizing off an easy comp base
Trailing 12M free cash flow$4.1B$4.5B+$400M TTM build
Quarterly share repurchases ($)$700M$200M-71% QoQ, sharp capital-return deceleration
B2B growth rate disclosureExact 22%Vague 'double-digit' onlyPrecision dropped, denominator game
Consumer (B2C) bookings growth10%8%-200bps deceleration
Active loyalty member growthMid-single digitsLow single digitsQuiet deceleration in engagement metric
Total booked room nights growth6%6%Flat

Accountability tracked

5 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged4 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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