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Call sheet · Q4'25

CME Group (CME)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 4, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is margin savings acceleration-$80B daily savings up $20B in one year isn't just efficiency theater, it's becoming a structural moat that forces institutional flow to CME as rates volatility persists. While everyone fixates on event contracts, the real story is CME's cross-margining advantage compounding through FICC partnerships. The binding constraint isn't regulatory approval for sports betting, it's CME's ability to maintain pricing power while investing in growth initiatives that are compressing margins. Terry's most revealing quote: 'We are running this business on a real-time basis' on fee changes-translation, they think they can push through increases when markets are hot rather than hoping annual bundles stick. My view changes if margin compression accelerates beyond the 140 bps we saw in Q4 or if event contracts fail to graduate users to traditional futures within two quarters.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: Margin savings juggernaut is accelerating into a genuine moat
  • Event contracts aren't about sports gambling-they're a retail customer acquisition engine
  • Fee flexibility signals pricing power confidence, but watch the timing shift

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$1.5B Q3, -3% YoY$1.65B Q4, +8% YoYSharp rebound to growth
ADV25.3M Q3 contracts28.1M Q4 contracts, +6% YoYVolume acceleration
Rate per contract$0.702 Q3$0.707 Q4Modest tick up
Market data revenue$203M Q3, +14% YoY$208M Q4, +15% YoYSustained double-digit growth
Adjusted operating margin68.4% Q367% Q4140 bps compression
Adjusted EPS$2.68 Q3$2.77 Q4, +10% YoYDouble-digit growth resumption
Crypto ADV340K Q3, +225% YoY379K Q4, +92% YoYStill strong but decelerating
International ADVNot disclosed Q38.4M Q4, +8% YoY recordNew disclosure, solid growth
Micro products ADVNot disclosed Q34.4M Q4, +59%Explosive retail growth
Daily margin savings~$60B implied Q3$80B Q4+$20B increase in one year

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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