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Call sheet · Q2'26

CME Group (CME)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 22, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that CME is treating competitors as free R&D labs, letting them burn capital acquiring retail traders who will eventually need institutional-grade products, with Duffy literally saying 'it's like an incubator system that I'm not paying for.' The perpetual futures defense dominated 40% of the call, but that's theater; the real binding constraint is volume deceleration from 36.2M to 29.8M ADV driving aggressive share buybacks to support EPS. Most revealing quote: 'We have contract specifications and are prepared to bring these products to market' on perpetuals, meaning they're hedged either way. My view changes if Q3 volumes don't show the 18% growth they're guiding or if Single Stock futures gain real traction.

The 30-second version

  • The perpetual futures debate is pure theater; CME is already weaponizing retail incubators as free customer acquisition
  • Record Q2 revenue of $1.7B masks accelerating RPC compression from volume tiering
  • Management spent 40% of the call defending against perpetuals while quietly shelving 24/7 crude oil after CFTC stay

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$1.9B (up 14% YoY)$1.7B (up 1% YoY)1300 bps deceleration
Adjusted EPS$3.36 (up 20% YoY)$2.99 (up 1% YoY)1900 bps growth collapse
ADV (millions)36.2 (up 22% YoY)29.8 (flat YoY)2200 bps deceleration
Average RPC$0.652$0.678+$0.026 sequential increase
Operating Margin72.8%69.5%330 bps compression
Market Data Revenue$224M (up 15% YoY)$238M (up 20% YoY)+500 bps acceleration
Open Interest Growth+11% YoY+8% YoY300 bps deceleration
International ADV11.4M (up 30% YoY)Not disclosedMetric disappeared
Margin Savings/Day$85B average$95B average+$10B increase
Institutional Volume %Not disclosed94% of totalNew defensive metric

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full CME Q2'26 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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