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Call sheet · Q1'26

CME Group (CME)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 22, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: CME is becoming essential market infrastructure rather than just an exchange, with $85B daily margin savings creating genuine switching costs for institutions. Yes, record 36.2M ADV looks great, but the real story is energy RPC compression from micro penetration (315k/day vs 80k last year) hitting faster than expected. The binding constraint isn't demand - it's margin compression from mix shift to retail-friendly products even as volumes explode. Terry's nuclear reaction to perpetual futures ('against the law in the United States') reveals this is a real competitive threat despite his dismissive tone. My view changes if energy micro penetration exceeds 25% of total energy volume or if they stop reporting RPC by asset class.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: Capital efficiency machine hits escape velocity
  • Record everything masks concerning RPC compression in energy
  • Perpetual futures land grab attempt gets Duffy nuclear

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Revenue$1.65B (+8% YoY Q4)$1.9B (+14% YoY Q1)Accelerated to 14% growth from 8%
Adjusted EPS$2.77 (+10% YoY Q4)$3.36 (+20% YoY Q1)Doubled growth rate to 20%
Average Daily Volume28.1M (Q4 avg, +6% for full year)36.2M (+22% YoY Q1)+8.1M contracts, highest quarterly ADV in history
Rate Per Contract$0.707 Q4$0.652 Q1-55 basis points, volume tiering acceleration
International ADV8.4M (+8% for 2025)11.4M (+30% YoY Q1)+3M contracts, stunning acceleration
Market Data Revenue$208M (+15% YoY Q4)$224M (+15% YoY Q1)Sustained 15% growth rate, 32 consecutive quarters
Adjusted Operating Margin67% Q472.8% Q1+580 bps expansion, highest in history
Open Interest125M mentioned in Q4 call+11% YoY, +19% since 2026 startStrong growth acceleration
Energy Micro Contracts80k/day Q1 2025315k/day Q1 2026Nearly 4x growth, massive mix shift
Margin Savings Per Day$80B mentioned in Q4$85B average Q1+$5B quarter over quarter

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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