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Call sheet · Q4'25

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 6, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is securities financing transaction clearing - launched 9 months ago, already at €1B notional, and management called it 'meaningful capital and risk efficiencies' for a massive bilateral market. The obvious headline is record revenue (+28%) but the real story is pricing power accelerating with 13% rate per contract growth despite 20 competing exchanges. The binding constraint isn't demand - it's broker distribution for prediction markets and regulatory approval timelines. Most revealing quote: 'We see 200,000+ SPX zero DTE contracts daily that have effectively a binary payout' - they're sitting on a massive prediction market opportunity. My view changes if securities financing revenue per billion falls below 5 basis points or if prediction market launch slips past Q2.

The 30-second version

  • Securities financing transaction clearing just crossed €1 billion notional in January-this is the sleeper vertical that nobody's modeling
  • Record Q4 revenue of $671M (+28% YoY) but the real story is rate per contract expansion accelerating to 13% in options
  • Prediction markets revenue guidance is suspiciously conservative-'small contribution' for Q2 launch targeting 200,000+ daily SPX zero DTE traders

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Net Revenue$605.5M (+14% YoY)$671M (+28% YoY)+1,400 bps acceleration
Adjusted Diluted EPS$2.67 (+20% YoY)$3.06 (+46% YoY)+2,600 bps acceleration
Derivatives Net Revenue+15% YoY+38% YoY+2,300 bps acceleration
SPX Zero DTE Share61% of SPX volume61% of SPX volumeFlat at elevated level
SPX Zero DTE ADV+62% YoY+66% YoY+400 bps acceleration
Options Rate Per ContractNot disclosed+13% YoYNew disclosure, strong pricing
DataVantage Revenue Growth+12% YoY+9% YoY-300 bps deceleration
Global FX Revenue Growth+13% YoY+22% YoY+900 bps acceleration
Adjusted Operating Expenses$210M (+3% YoY)$221M (+8% YoY)+500 bps acceleration
Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin67.5%69.2%+170 bps expansion

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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