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Call sheet · Q1'26

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 1, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that Cboe just announced the largest restructuring in company history while posting record earnings, firing 20% of staff because they see growth slowing dramatically ahead. Yes, they beat on every headline metric with 48% EPS growth, but that's backward-looking. The binding constraint is that 0DTE options are maturing (only 6% monthly growth in March) and they're desperately pivoting to prediction markets to defend against competitors using S&P 500 data for binary options. Craig's defensive comment about 'regulatory clarity' reveals genuine anxiety about the 2032 SPX contract renewal. My view changes if 0DTE reaccelerates above 20% monthly growth or if event contracts generate $100M+ in first year revenue.

The 30-second version

  • 20% headcount reduction buried in 'strategic realignment' is the real story, not the record earnings
  • SPX monopoly anxiety shows in the prediction market pivot
  • DataVantage guidance downshift from 'low double digits' to 'low double to mid-teens' for total revenue is concerning

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Net Revenue$671M (+28% YoY)$729M (+29% YoY)+100bps deceleration in growth rate
Adjusted EPS$3.06 (+46% YoY)$3.70 (+48% YoY)+200bps acceleration
Adjusted EBITDA Margin69.2%74.2%+500bps expansion
SPX ADV4.3M contracts4.9M contracts+14% sequential growth
0DTE % of SPX61%60%First decline in mix
Options Segment Revenue$334M (+34% YoY)$445M (+33% YoY)Growth rate decelerating
DataVantage Revenue$61M (+9% YoY)$73M (+19% YoY)+1000bps acceleration
Adjusted OpEx$221M (+8% YoY)$201M (+4% YoY)Expense growth halving
Cash Position$2.2B$2.1B$100M decline despite record earnings
Share Repurchases$0 in Q4$45M in Q1Resumed buybacks

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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