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Call sheet · Q4'25

ASML Holding (ASML)

Q4'25 earnings call · held January 28, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
12/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The memory bottleneck story is what the market is missing - DRAM customers are scrambling for capacity while everyone fixates on AI logic chips. ASML's guidance of €34-39B (vs €32.7B) shows this isn't just unit growth but a capacity explosion, even with 40% productivity gains they're doubling EUV shipments to 80 units. The binding constraint isn't demand (customers have 'very high appetite') but supply chain ramp and customer fab readiness. Fouquet's most revealing quote: 'capacity will mean market share' - this is a land grab, not a measured expansion. My view changes if China revenue decline accelerates beyond the guided 20% or if supply chain constraints force unit shipment delays below 80 EUV tools.

The 30-second version

  • Memory bottleneck is the REAL AI story - DRAM customers scrambling for capacity while everyone fixates on logic
  • EUV capacity explosion - 80 units in 2026 vs 44 in 2025, despite 40%+ productivity gains
  • China normalization accelerating faster than expected - from 33% to 20% of revenue

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Net Revenue€7.5B Q3 (+16% YoY)€32.7B FY (+16% YoY)Record quarter and year, momentum accelerating
EUV Revenue€3.6B bookings Q339% growth YoYMassive acceleration driven by 3800 tools and High NA
Deep UV RevenueStable in Q3-6% YoYChina decline hitting legacy products
Installed Base Revenue€2.0B Q3€8.2B FY (+26% YoY)Upgrade appetite 'very, very high' per Dassen
Metrology & InspectionStrong in Q3+30% growth YoYMulti-beam e-beam inspection breakthrough
China Revenue ShareHigher in 2024/2529% total, 33% systemsExpected to drop to 20% in 2026
Gross Margin51.6% Q352.8% FYSustained above 50% despite mix shifts
EPSStrong Q3€25 FY75% company growth 2021-2025
Q1 2026 Guidance€32.5B FY expected€8.2-8.9B revenueStrong start with €2.4B installed base
2026 Full YearNot disclosed€34-39B guidance12% growth at midpoint after 16% in 2025

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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