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Call sheet · Q1'26

ASML Holding (ASML)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 15, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is non-EUV quietly flipping from flat to growth - that's potentially billions in incremental revenue nobody's modeling while everyone obsesses over EUV capacity. Yes, the 60-to-80+ EUV unit ramp is real and impressive, but the binding constraint isn't ASML's capacity anymore, it's customer fab readiness and energy availability for AI infrastructure. Fouquet's most revealing quote: 'Memory customers are sold out for 2026 and supply constraint will last beyond 2026' - this isn't just demand, it's rationing. My view changes if High NA customer progress stalls further or if the non-EUV recovery fails to materialize in Q2 unit shipments.

The 30-second version

  • The capacity story everyone's missing: non-EUV is quietly accelerating
  • EUV capacity ramp is real and contracted - 60 to 80+ units locked in
  • High NA timeline just got vaguer while everyone's distracted by the capacity story

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Net SalesEUR 8.5B (Q4 2025)EUR 8.8B (Q1 2026)+4% sequential, within guidance
Gross Margin52.8% (FY 2025)53% (Q1 2026)High end of guidance, installed base mix benefit
Net IncomeEUR 9.6B (FY 2025)EUR 2.8B (Q1 2026)Strong quarterly result
Installed Base RevenueEUR 2.1B (Q4 2025)EUR 2.5B (Q1 2026)+19% sequential, above guidance
EUV Unit Capacity44 systems (2025)60+ systems (2026 guide)+36% YoY capacity expansion
High NA CapacityRamping (Q4 2025)80+ systems (2027 outlook)Specific 2027 target provided
Full Year Revenue GuideEUR 34-39B (Q4 2025)EUR 36-40B (Q1 2026)Raised floor by EUR 2B, narrowed range
Non-EUV BusinessFlat vs 2025 (Q4 guide)Increase expected (Q1 update)Upgraded from flat to growth
China Revenue %29% of total sales (2025)~20% expected (2026)Continued normalization, -900 bps
Source Power DemoDevelopment ongoing1,000-watt source demonstratedMajor technology milestone achieved

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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