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Call sheet · Q3'26

ASML Holding (ASML)

Q3'26 earnings call · held October 14, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Sales were within guidance, while installed-base upgrades helped gross margin exceed the guided range. The 2027 capacity expansion intent remains 30%, with a higher 2028 scenario being studied. The next tests are execution, upgrade durability and pricing contribution over time, not an assumed withdrawal of capacity guidance. Separate the Mistral AI valuation gain and customer down-payment timing when assessing repeatable earnings and cash flow.

The 30-second version

  • Capacity expansion remains the test
  • The margin surprise came from installed-base upgrades
  • Separate equipment economics from the investment gain

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Total net sales€9.3B (Q2)€11.7B record, high end of guide+26% QoQ
Net system sales€6.6B€8.4B+27% QoQ
EUV system sales€3.8B incl. 1 high-NA€4.1B incl. 1 high-NA+8% QoQ, flat high-NA unit pace
Install base management sales€2.8B, beat guide by ~€300M€3.3B, beat guide by ~€400MBeat magnitude widening
Gross margin54.0%57.5%, above guide+350bps
R&D expense€1.3B€1.2B-€0.1B despite scale-up
Net income€2.9B€5.0B, incl. ~€0.5B Mistral AI mark-upAbout +72% QoQ; valuation gain equals roughly 10% of net income, not the earnings beat
Cash & short-term investments€7.6B€12.7B+67% QoQ
Free cash flow€1.3B€11.4B+777% QoQ, flagged as downpayment-driven
Share buyback executed€1.1B€4.1B+273% QoQ

Accountability tracked

9 new promises made3 narrative shifts flagged8 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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