| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 13, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 14, 2026 | 5/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 14, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 14, 2026 | 9/12 | 5 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | We still expect our RWA to go down as a result of... about 7% Contingent on Basel III endgame finalization, not yet complete; reaffirmed at approximately 7% this quarter. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We still expect 2026 noninterest expense to be approximately $55.7 billion Full year not yet complete; reaffirmed at $55.7 billion this quarter. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We still expect market NII to be approximately $2 billion in 2026 Full year not yet complete; however, Q4 markets NII is now guided to roughly $1.8 billion, implying a full-year figure below the original $2 billion, a downward revision rather than a confirmed miss. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We still expect net interest income for full year 2026 to be $50 billion plus or minus Full year not yet complete; reaffirmed on this call at the same $50 billion plus or minus. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | As we previously announced, we expect to increase our third quarter common stock dividend by 11% to $0.50 per share subject to approval by our Board Dividend increased to $0.50/share as announced. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | We expect modest net interest margin compression in the third quarter broadly in line with second quarter's decline... before stabilizing the fourth quarter Actual Q3 NIM was stable versus Q2, not compressed as guided, a positive surprise one quarter early. |
| Q2'26 | Missed | NIB deposit growth from commercial relationships Walked back to 'relatively stable' from growth expectations |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Checking account growth acceleration Still growing but 'not yet growing accounts at the pace we expect to over time' |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Markets revenue growth from financing activities Markets revenue up 24% YoY, management claims financing driving it but won't quantify |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue to hire coverage bankers to drive growth Commercial banking showing loan/deposit growth from new hires |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 17% to 18% RoTCE target Hit 17.7% this quarter but includes lumpy venture gains, core ROTCE likely ~16% |
| Q2'26 | Pending | As more vintages mature, that will incrementally come into the P&L (credit cards) 2022-2024 vintages profitable but offset by 2025-2026 costs, net impact unclear |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | We expect net interest income to grow over the course of the year NII up 2% QoQ, on track for $50B guidance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Two to three rate cuts assumed in 2026 outlook Market now expects fewer cuts, which management says would be 'beneficial' |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Share repurchases lower in 2026 vs 2025 $4B in Q1 vs $5B in Q4 2025, consistent with guidance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Markets NII approximately $2B in 2026 Management reaffirmed this target despite rate environment challenges |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Average loan growth mid-single digits Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 Q1 growth of 4% suggests could exceed mid-single digit annual target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Noninterest expense approximately $55.7B in 2026 Q1 expenses in line with expectations to hit annual target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Net interest income to be $50B plus or minus in 2026 Q1 annualized pace of ~$51B, on track but early |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue to focus on efficiency initiatives Delivered $15B cumulative gross saves, added specific 2026 targets |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | We would expect the overall to be up in markets revenue Markets revenue up 7% YoY as expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Fourth quarter NII approximately $12.4-12.5 billion Implied $12.6B based on full year numbers and prior quarters |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Net interest income for full year 2025 roughly in line with 2024 ($47.7B) Reported $47.5B, essentially in line with guidance |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Full-year 2025 noninterest expense approximately $54.2 billion Came in at $54.8B, $600M higher due to severance and revenue-related comp |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Fourth-quarter repurchases roughly in line with third quarter ($6.1B) Bought back $5B in Q4, below the $6.1B Q3 level they guided to |
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